Published : 04 Oct 2026, 09:57 AM
Updated : 04 Oct 2026, 09:57 AM
A series of polls on Saturday showed Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva slightly ahead of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro before Sunday's first-round vote, and a close race in a likely runoff between the leftist incumbent and his right-wing challenger.
If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of valid votes -- which exclude blank and null ballots -- on Sunday, the two frontrunners advance to a second-round runoff on Oct 25.
CNT/MDA Poll
First round (valid votes): Lula 47.8 percent , Bolsonaro 42.1 percent , Augusto Cury 3.6 percent , Ronaldo Caiado 3.4 percent , Renan Santos 1.7 percent , Romeu Zema 0.9 percent
Runoff: Lula 47.3 percent , Bolsonaro 43.1 percent
MDA surveyed 2,007 people from Sept 30 to Oct 2; margin of error of 2.2 percentage points
Datafolha
First round (valid votes): Lula 45 percent , Bolsonaro 42 percent , Caiado 4 percent , Santos 3 percent , Cury 3 percent , Zema 1 percent
Runoff: Lula 47 percent , Bolsonaro 46 percent
Datafolha surveyed 4,006 people from Oct 2-3; margin of error 2 percentage points
Quaest Poll
First round (valid votes): Lula 46 percent, Bolsonaro 45 percent, Cury 3 percent, Santos 3 percent, Caiado 3 percent
Runoff: Bolsonaro 44 percent , Lula 42 percent
Quaest surveyed 3,702 people from Oct 2-3; margin of error 2 percentage points
Atlasintel/ Bloomberg Poll
First round (valid votes): Lula 47 percent , Bolsonaro 44.1 percent, Santos 4.6 percent , Cury 2.1percent, Caiado 1.4 percent
Runoff: Lula 47.6 percent , Bolsonaro 47.4 percent
AtlasIntel surveyed 4,945 people from Sept 27 to Oct 2; margin of error 1 percentage point
