Published : 03 Oct 2026, 09:46 PM
Updated : 03 Oct 2026, 09:46 PM
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro narrowed ahead of Sunday's first-round vote, a CNT/MDA poll showed on Saturday, while also pointing to a tighter race in a likely runoff.
In a first-round scenario, Lula would receive 43.1 percent of voter support, followed by Bolsonaro (38 percent), Augusto Cury (3.2 percent), Ronaldo Caiado (3 percent) and Renan Santos (1.5 percent), according to the poll.
● A Sept 15 poll had Lula at 40.5 percent, Bolsonaro at 30.4 percent, Cury at 6 percent, Caiado at 3 percent and Santos at 2.7 percent
● Considering only projected valid votes, which exclude people telling the pollster they would leave their ballots blank or void somehow, Lula reached 47.8 percent voter support against Bolsonaro's 42.1 percent
● If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of valid votes in the Sunday first round, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff on Oct 25
● In a likely runoff, Lula would receive 47.3 percent of voter support, compared with 43.1 percent for the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, the poll said
● In the previous survey, Lula led Senator Bolsonaro by 47.3 percent to 40 percent in the runoff
● MDA surveyed 2,007 people from Sept 30 to Oct 2, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points
