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Rapid events shock Arab capitals, sparking fears of greater regional instability
Published : 08 Dec 2024, 07:00 PM
Syrian rebels declared they had ousted President Bashar al-Assad after seizing control of Damascus on Sunday, forcing him to flee and ending his family's decades of autocratic rule after more than 13 years of civil war.
In a seismic moment for the Middle East, the Islamist rebels also dealt a major blow to the influence of Russia and Iran in Syria in the heart of the region - allies who had propped up Assad during critical periods in the war but were distracted by other crises recently.
The rebels said they had entered the capital with no sign of army deployments. Thousands of people in cars and on foot congregated at a main square in Damascus waving and chanting "Freedom" from a half century of Assad family rule, witnesses said.
People were seen walking inside the Al-Rawda Presidential Palace, with some leaving carrying furniture from inside.
"We celebrate with the Syrian people the news of freeing our prisoners and releasing their chains," the rebels said.
Rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani vowed no turning back.
"The future is ours," he said in a statement read on Syria's state TV after his forces took over Damascus.
The pace of events stunned Arab capitals and raised concerns about a new wave of instability in a region already in turmoil following the spread of conflict after the Hamas-led attack on Israel on Oct 7, 2023, and the ensuing Gaza war.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Assad's fall was a direct result of blows that Israel has dealt to Iran and its ally Hezbollah.
French President Emmanuel Macron said "the barbaric state has fallen" and paid tribute to the Syrian people.
DAUNTING TASK AHEAD
When the celebrations fade, Syria's new leaders will face the daunting task of trying to deliver stability to a diverse country with competing factions that will need billions of dollars in aid and investments to rebuild.
Syria's long civil war, which erupted in 2011 as an uprising against Assad's rule, turned cities to rubble and killed hundreds of thousands of people.
Stakeholders range from Turkey to the United States to Islamists to Kurds.
One possible challenge could be a resurgence of Islamic State which imposed a reign of terror in large swathes of Syria and Iraq and directed external operations during its prime.
President Joe Biden's administration was monitoring developments but has not adjusted the positioning of the roughly 900 troops in Syria so far, US officials told Reuters.
Underscoring the lightning changes, Iran's embassy was stormed by Syrian rebels, Iran's English-language Press TV reported.
Iran, whose elite Revolutionary Guards have faced deadly Israeli strikes in Syria, gave a measured response. Its foreign ministry said Syria's fate is the sole responsibility of the Syrian people and should be pursued without foreign imposition or destructive intervention.
Lebanese-based Hezbollah, which provided crucial support to Assad for years, withdrew all of its forces from Syria on Saturday as rebel factions approached Damascus, two Lebanese security sources told Reuters on Sunday.
Assad, who had not spoken in public since the sudden rebel advance a week ago, flew out of Damascus for an unknown destination earlier on Sunday, two senior army officers told Reuters.
His whereabouts now - and those of his wife Asma and their two children - were unknown. The Russian Foreign Ministry said Assad had left office and departed the country after giving orders for a peaceful handover of power.
The Syrian rebel coalition said it was continuing work to complete the transfer of power in the country to a transitional governing body with full executive powers.
"The great Syrian revolution has moved from the stage of struggle to overthrow the Assad regime to the struggle to build a Syria together that befits the sacrifices of its people," it added in a statement.
Throughout the civil war, security forces held hundreds of thousands of people seized into detention camps where international human rights organisations say torture was universal practise. Families were often told nothing of their loved-ones' fate.
Bewildered and elated prisoners poured out of Syrian jails on Sunday, shouting with joy as they emerged from one of the world's most notorious detention systems.
Newly freed prisoners ran through the Damascus streets holding up the fingers of both hands to show how many years they had been in prison, asking passers-by what had happened, not immediately understanding that Assad had fallen.
Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali called for free elections in a country where Assad's opponents faced barrel bombs.
Jalali also said he had been in contact with Golani to discuss managing the transitional period, marking a notable development in efforts to shape Syria's political future.
The collapse of Assad's rule followed a shift in the balance of power in the Middle East after many leaders of Hezbollah, a lynchpin of Assad's battlefield force, were killed by Israel over the past two months.
Russia, a staunch Assad ally, intervened decisively in 2015 to help Assad during Syria's civil war. But it has been tied down by the Ukraine war.
US TO MAINTAIN PRESENCE
The Syrian civil war dragged in a string of outside powers, created space for jihadist militants to plot attacks around the world and sent millions of refugees into neighbouring states.
The frontlines were dormant for years. Then Islamists who had once been affiliated with Al Qaeda suddenly burst into action in late November.
Western governments, which have shunned the Assad-led state for years, must now decide how to deal with a new administration in which a globally designated terrorist group - Golani's Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) - looks set to have influence.
A former US military commander of American forces in the Middle East, retired Marine General Frank McKenzie, said he was concerned about the way ahead for Syria.
"I wish I could be more hopeful that it will mean good news for the Syrian people ... We could have an Islamic state arise there which will have profound negative implications across the region. That is possible," McKenzie told ABC News.
The United States will continue to maintain its presence in eastern Syria and will take measures necessary to prevent a resurgence of the Islamic State, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Daniel Shapiro said at a conference in Manama on Sunday.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said "terrorist organisations" must not be allowed to take advantage of the situation in Syria and called for caution.
HTS, which spearheaded the rebel advances across western Syria, was formerly an al Qaeda affiliate until its leader Golani severed ties with the global jihadist movement in 2016.
"The real question is how orderly will this transition be, and it seems quite clear that Golani is very eager for it to be an orderly one," said Joshua Landis, a Syria expert and Director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.
"They are going to have to rebuild ... they will need Europe and the US to lift sanctions," Landis added.
HTS is Syria's strongest rebel group and some Syrians remain fearful it will impose draconian Islamist rule or instigate reprisals.
Countries like the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, both close US allies, see Islamist militant groups as an existential threat, so HTS may face resistance from the regional heavyweights.
Israel said it had deployed forces in the UN-monitored buffer zone with Syria and at a number of points necessary for defence.
Suspected Israeli strikes hit Mazzeh district of Damascus, one Lebanese and one Syrian security source said on Sunday.
Jets believed to be Israeli bombed the Khalkhala air base in southern Syria that was evacuated by the Syrian army overnight, two regional security sources told Reuters.
The Israeli government had no immediate comment on the reported strikes, which one of the sources said appeared to be aimed at preventing weapons falling into the hands of radical Islamist groups.
