Risk of violence escalates in Myanmar's civil war as junta flags elections

Both the junta and rebels will try to increase control of territory ahead of a possible election, according to analysts, rebels, and diplomatic sources

A protester holds a flag as he shouts slogans during a demonstration to mark last year's anniversary of Myanmar’s 2021 military coup, outside the United Nations office in Bangkok, Thailand, February 1, 2024. REUTERS

Four years after seizing power in a dawn coup that ousted an elected civilian government, Myanmar's embattled ruling generals are making their most concerted effort to gain legitimacy - by pushing to hold another election.

In the last two months, the junta has outlined plans to neighbours for an election in 2025, released the results of a census conducted to prepare voters lists, and announced in state media that it is working to ensure "stability" for the polls.

Together, these moves amount to the most serious declaration of intent by Myanmar's junta to hold an election since it toppled the government of Aung San Suu Kyi on Feb 1, 2021, but they come amid a grinding civil war where the military has steadily lost ground nationwide.

With many forces opposing the junta and the election, tensions are set to rise ahead of the ballot, which brings the risk of more violence as both sides push to increase their control of territory, according to eight people, including analysts, rebels and diplomatic sources.

A date for the election has not been announced, but with voting in only about half the country, dozens of opposition groups banned and only pre-vetted, pro-military parties in the race, the exercise has already been derided as a sham by critics.

The junta was able to conduct a full, on-ground census only in 145 of the country's 330 townships, according to the census report published in December. The generals are currently planning to hold the election in only 160-170 of the townships towards the end of the year, according a source with knowledge of discussions in Naypyidaw, the capital.

"They want to go ahead," the source said, asking not to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter, adding that the junta would look to stabilise those areas ahead of the polls.

A junta spokesman did not respond to calls seeking comment.

An armed opposition, comprising established ethnic armies and new resistance groups formed since the coup, have wrested chunks of territory from the junta, driving it out of border areas and increasingly hemming the territory it controls into the central lowlands.

"This will inevitably escalate the conflict to an unprecedented level," said Ye Myo Hein, a Myanmar analyst at the United States Institute of Peace, of the upcoming election.

Myanmar is currently in a state of emergency that is set to expire by the end of January, and speculation is mounting whether the junta will declare another six-month extension or instead announce the election date ahead of the coup anniversary.

'BLOODBATH'

The National Unity Government (NUG), a shadow underground administration comprising remnants of Suu Kyi's political party, the National League for Democracy, and other anti-junta groups, has put together a 12-point plan to oppose the vote, according to an internal document seen by Reuters.

A key element of the plan is to not allow the junta to hold elections in regions controlled by resistance forces, including by advocating to local communities, blocking the election commission and closer cooperation with other armed groups.

NUG spokesman Kyaw Zaw did not comment on the document or the plan, but said that military operations against the junta would continue unabated.

"But we will not instruct our people, our defence forces to target the civilians," he told Reuters.

The spectre of escalating violence looms large over the election exercise, with the armed opposition poised to undermine the junta's efforts to gain legitimacy through the ballot, according to two diplomatic sources with knowledge of the situation in Myanmar and three analysts.

"There is a very real danger these elections could turn into a bloodbath if revolutionary forces decide to attack polling stations, election officials and party candidates," said David Mathieson, an independent analyst tracking Myanmar, describing possible efforts by anti-junta groups to disrupt the elections.

Members of two major rebel groups - the Karen National Union and the Karenni Nationalities Defence Force - said they were opposed to the elections and would continue military operations.

"The election is one of the factors that will push us to do things much faster," a Karenni commander told Reuters, asking not to be named.

The lives of millions in Myanmar, already ensnared in a widening conflict that has decimated the economy, are on the line.

By this summer, about 15 million people in the country will face acute levels of food insecurity, or food deprivation that threatens lives or livelihoods, Reuters reported in December, revealing a crisis that has largely gone under the radar.

At a meeting this month, countries from the regional bloc ASEAN told the junta that its plan to hold an election should not be its priority, instead urging it to start dialogue and end hostilities immediately.