Prior to Iran attacks, CIA assessed Khamenei would be replaced by hardline IRGC elements if killed, sources say

The assessments examined US intervention’s impact and possible regime change

A satellite image shows black smoke rising and heavy damage at Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's compound, following strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran, in Tehran, Iran Feb 28, 2026. Pleiades Neo (c) Airbus DS 2026/Handout via REUTERS

In the run-up to the US and Israeli attacks on Saturday, the US Central Intelligence Agency assessed that even if Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the operation, he would likely be replaced by hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), two sources briefed on the intelligence said.

The assessments, which were produced over the past two weeks, looked broadly at what could occur in Iran following a US intervention and the extent to which a military operation could trigger regime change in the Islamic Republic -- now a pronounced objective for Washington.

The IRGC is an elite military force whose purpose is to protect Shi'ite Muslim clerical rule in Iran.

The intelligence agency reports did not conclude any scenario with certainty, said the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters.

The Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.

President Donald Trump has for weeks signalled the US was interested in seeing regime change in Iran, but has not given in any detail Washington’s thinking on who could lead the country.

In an early morning video address on Saturday, Trump described Tehran as a "terrorist regime" and encouraged the Iranian people to take over the government, saying the US military strikes would set the stage for an uprising.

The US and Israeli assault comes after weeks of deliberation inside the US government about whether to strike Iran following the deadly protests that broke out there in December.

US officials in recent weeks have tried to strike a nuclear deal with Tehran in an attempt to stave off intervention.

In a briefing last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told top congressional lawmakers known as the Gang of Eight that a US operation would likely move forward, but that Trump could change his mind, particularly if nuclear negotiations were successful. Those talks in Geneva did not result in an agreement.

Rubio notified the Gang of Eight on Friday night that the operation to attack Iran was likely to commence in the following hours but said Trump could still change his mind, two sources familiar with the matter said.