Trump and Netanyahu set for pivotal talks on Middle East agenda

Netanyahu is the first foreign leader to be hosted by Trump since the pro-Israel president's Jan 20 inauguration

When Benjamin Netanyahu meets US President Donald Trump on Tuesday, the Israeli prime minister is expected to try to turn the page on sometimes tense relations with the Biden White House as the two leaders address the future of the Gaza ceasefire and ways to counter Iran.

But Netanyahu, the first foreign leader to be hosted by Trump since the pro-Israel president's Jan 20 inauguration, could also come under pressure from an American leader whose policy goals for the Middle East may not always coincide with Netanyahu's interests.

Their meeting coincided with the scheduled resumption of indirect negotiations this week between Israel and Hamas on the crucial second stage of the ceasefire deal and hostage release. The two men will hold a joint press conference and then have dinner together.

The region is at a critical juncture, with the Gaza truce fragile, a parallel Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement in Lebanon nearing possible expiration in coming weeks and concerns about Iran's nuclear ambitions persisting despite its weakened state.

Adding to regional unease is Trump's suggestion that Gazans should be moved to neighboring countries such as Egypt and Jordan, echoing the wishes of Israel's far right and contradicting Biden's commitment against mass displacement of Palestinians.

Arab states have rejected the idea.

But a senior US official, when asked whether Trump was serious, appeared to defend the president, saying that he sees war-shattered Gaza as a "demolition site," believes it will take 10-15 years to rebuild and it would be inhumane to force people to live on uninhabitable land.

The US, the official told reporters on Tuesday, will not impose a resolution but wants Arab partners and Israel to help craft "creative solutions" to the challenge.

In his first term, Trump handed Netanyahu a series of successes, including relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv and the signing of the Abraham Accords, normalising relations between Israel and several Arab states.

He remains a strong supporter of US ally Israel, taking credit for helping broker the Gaza ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas militants in the Palestinian enclave even before he returned to office, while insisting he wants to end the wars in the Middle East.

Trump has said he hopes to renew an effort toward historic normalization of relations between Israel and Arab power Saudi Arabia, and US officials said that goal, plus maintaining the Gaza ceasefire, would be a focus of the White House talks.

Trump's broader regional ambitions have created uncertainty over how much leeway Trump will give Netanyahu. The prime minister faces demands from far-right members of his coalition threatening to topple his government unless he restarts the fighting in Gaza to fulfill his pledge to destroy Iran-backed Hamas. An ever-raging war would complicate if not block Trump's attempt to bring the Saudis to the negotiating table.

Even so, Netanyahu is all but certain to have a better reception this time than he received from former President Joe Biden.

Though Biden maintained military support for Israel after Hamas' Oct 7, 2023, attack that prompted the Israeli assault on Gaza, relations were strained at times over the high Palestinian civilian death toll and Netanyahu's defiance of US demands.

'NO ASSURANCES'

Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, played a key role in helping the Biden administration secure the long-sought Gaza deal before the Jan. 20 transfer of power in the US and is expected to be heavily involved in the next round. The first phase has led to Hamas' release of 18 hostages and Israel's release of hundreds of jailed Palestinians.

On Monday, Trump acknowledged to reporters that there were no assurances that the ceasefire would hold, though Witkoff added: "We're certainly hopeful."

Trump and Netanyahu have both said they want to include Saudi Arabia in new regional arrangements building on the Abraham Accords, an effort that could help create a bulwark against Iran.

But Netanyahu's steadfast opposition to any move towards a Palestinian state, a stance supported by a growing number of Israelis in the wake of the Gaza war, stands as a potential obstacle to a deal with Saudi Arabia, which has previously insisted on agreement at least on a pathway to an independent Palestine.

For Netanyahu, whose international isolation over the Gaza war was underlined by an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC) on allegations of war crimes, the visit offers a chance to burnish his diplomatic credentials in Washington, which has come out strongly against the ICC.

Pro-Palestinian activists as well as those calling for the release of the remaining hostages held by Hamas plan separate protests to coincide with Netanyahu's visit to Washington.

Netanyahu will meet other senior Trump aides during his visit as well as congressional leaders and is expected to seek assurances of continued US weapons supplies.

Within days of returning to the White House, Trump approved a shipment of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel that the Biden administration had blocked.

High on the agenda for Tuesday's talks will be Iran, which last year launched hundreds of missiles and drones against Israel, drawing Israeli retaliation that was said to have crippled Tehran's air defenses.

Trump quit an international nuclear deal with Tehran in 2018 and both he and Netanyahu have vowed to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, concerns have grown in Iran that the new president might give Netanyahu the go-ahead to hit its nuclear sites.