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Published : 08 Oct 2025, 11:33 PM
Russia's heavy bombardment of Ukraine's natural gas infrastructure ahead of winter is set to have a knock-on impact on Europe's energy market as Ukraine draws more fuel from its western neighbours.
Any increase in European gas prices as a result of Ukraine’s purchases is nevertheless likely to be mitigated by the abundance of global liquefied natural gas supplies.
Russia stepped up attacks on Ukraine's energy grid and gas production facilities in recent days as the war enters its fourth winter.
CRITICAL DAMAGE TO FACILITIES
On Friday, Moscow launched its largest attack on Ukrainian gas infrastructure since the start of the war, which the CEO of state oil and gas company Naftogaz said caused critical damage to facilities. There were further strikes on civilian gas supply infrastructure over the weekend. Ukraine has also ramped up drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and facilities in recent weeks.
It is so far unclear to what extent the strikes have hurt Ukraine's domestic gas production. A massive wave of Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities in March reduced production by over a third, meaning that the latest attacks could have similar or larger impact.
LOW STORAGE
Ukraine operates Europe's largest underground gas storage which has a capacity of 31 billion cubic metres, though it currently holds around 13 bcm, or 42 percent of capacity, according to Erisa Pasko, gas analyst at Energy Aspects. The figure, however, includes around 4.7 bcm of gas in strategic reserves that are harder to tap, she added.
Ukraine has traditionally exported gas to Europe, delivering Russian fuel under a major transit contract which accounted for around 5 percent of total European Union imports in 2024 and which offered Kyiv substantial revenue. The flow meant that Ukraine's gas storage and pipeline network was initially spared from Russian attacks, but that all changed when the transit agreement expired on January 1, 2025.
Beyond its domestic gas production, which reached around 19 bcm last year, Ukraine today imports gas via interconnectors from Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. It has also started using pipelines via the Balkans to import small volumes of LNG delivered to Greece and Croatia.
If the current damage to Ukraine’s production is at a similar scale to last winter’s, Ukraine will likely need to increase imports from western neighbours between October and March to 2.1 to 4.1 bcm, from a previous estimate of 1.5 bcm, according to Energy Aspects' Pasko.
“Storage fill is well below the historical average and Ukraine will likely take more precautionary measures this winter given continuous attacks on its gas infrastructure,” Pasko said.
EU PRESSURE
Stronger demand from Ukraine will therefore increase pressure on the neighbouring European gas market, which has itself undergone dramatic transformation in the wake of Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Russian gas exports to Europe have plummeted from over 150 bcm in 2021, or 45 percent of total imports, to 52 bcm, or 19 percent, in 2024, according to EU data. The EU is currently exploring ways to fully halt Russian imports by 2027.
The rapid change led to a severe energy price shock in Europe, as it scrambled to import large volumes of more expensive LNG cargoes.
In the first nine months of 2025, Europe’s LNG imports rose by 27 percent from the previous year to 108 bcm, of which US cargoes accounted for 63 percent, according to data from consultancy Bruegel.
The surge in LNG imports has been vital for replenishing the region's gas storage ahead of winter. EU storage was 83 percent of capacity by then, lower than the 93 percent the same time last year, according to data from industry lobby group Gas Infrastructure Europe.
LNG CUSHION HEADING INTO WINTER
The European gas market enters winter relatively relaxed thanks to a surge in global LNG supplies.
Benchmark European TTF gas prices have dropped by around 90 percent from their post-crisis record of over 300 euros per megawatt hour to around 33 euros per MWh, reflecting the changing dynamics.
But increased demand for gas from Ukraine would require Europe to boost LNG imports, pushing prices higher.
The gas market will also remain highly sensitive to weather in the coming months. A harsh winter could further fuel demand and tighten supplies in Europe, putting more pressure on prices.
Russia's intensified targeting of Ukrainian gas and power infrastructure poses real risks for the Ukrainian economy and population as winter sets in. The impact of the strikes will also be felt in Europe.
