Do we overhype the US election?

Every four years, the international media works itself into a frenzy over the fate of the US presidential race. Rajib Das asks, why?

The US presidential election is one of the most highly discussed events every four years, grabbing attention worldwide. The election determines the US president, often seen as one of the most influential leaders in the world. However, while the US election symbolises democratic norms, other American polls, like the midterm election of Congress's lower house – the House of Representatives - hold less significance and do not substantially impact international politics.

The United States is considered the impetus of global democracy, a defender of free speech, human rights, and a free press. In theory, these values are considered the pillars of democracy. However, the reality of US influence in global democracy often reveals a more complex landscape, sometimes starkly contrasting its on-paper ideals.

Though it was considered the uncontested superpower after the fall of Soviet Russia in the last decade of the 20th century, academics and political scientists such as John Mearsheimer and realist and neo-realist thinkers often argue that the US does not hold superpower status anymore. The rise of China in the global economy has now challenged US supremacy. The realists now see international politics as the arena of great power rivalry, where influence is divided among a few dominant players. This power structure is increasingly framed as a divide between the ‘West’, encompassing the US and its Western allies, and the ‘Global South’, a coalition of emerging powers focusing on China, Russia, and India.

Interestingly, in the Soviet era, this power struggle pitted the West against the East. After the fall of East Germany and then the rest of Soviet Russia, the axis of the rivalry pivoted. This is due to the geographical and strategic alignments. Russia again emerged as a formidable power to the East after the West's geographic and ideological boundaries ended due to shifts in Eastern Europe. When China came into the play, with India, Brazil and South Africa, creating BRICS, it formally reframed the two primary blocs of global dominance.

THE HYPE FOR THE US ELECTION

Then the question may arise: if the US no longer holds superpower status, why is there so much hype for the election?

Well, there are several key factors. Firstly, the United States has been viewed as a dominant player in global politics for a long time, with decisions made by its president significantly impacting international relations, trade, and security. As a result, the US election is not merely a national event; it reverberates worldwide. Additionally, the US makes its electoral process a subject of scrutiny and serves as a model for other democracies. This self-image heightens interest in the elections, prompting global observers to watch how democracy unfolds in the US. That also validates the president's power after a tight election win and serves as a model for how they want to be seen in the world.

As the president of the US holds nearly all the country’s executive power, it can be enlightening to look at the contest through the lens of behaviour personality theory. In the US, voters only really have a choice between two candidates due to the make-up of the system. As such, the focus of the global media is the behaviour of the candidates. For example, most of the voters will pick a president based on the performance of the current party in power. Because of that we eventually see candidates often attacking the personal characteristics of their opponents. Before Kamala Harris took on the Democratic nomination, Donald Trump directly attacked President Biden for not being physically and mentally fit. Ironically, the line of attack may have worked too well as the Democrats shifted to Kamala.

Since she entered the race, she has traded attacks and allegations back and forth with Trump. In many ways, the conflict hasn’t focused on political agendas or policies, but rather on their behaviour.

WHY DON’T OTHER ELECTIONS DRAW AS MUCH ATTENTION?

In March 2023, it was clear that Chinese President Xi Jinping would secure a third term in office, as the National People's Congress (NPC) voted overwhelmingly to abolish the two-term limit in 2018, potentially allowing Xi to remain in power for life. This change made the contest for the Chinese premiership less attractive as it effectively signalled that Xi would stay in charge indefinitely, reinforcing expectations of his continued leadership. It is a similar case with Russia. Last March, Vladimir Putin secured his fifth term with 88 percent of the votes.

Then there is the case of India, the largest democracy in the world. When India held its 19th election last May, there was some stir in the realm of international politics. Though Narendra Modi became the prime minister for a third consecutive term, there was a significant push from the opposition Indian National Congress and its allies. Despite the scope and competitiveness of the polls, the international media attention given to the Indian election is much more limited than the US polls.

While the West and the Global South may be struggling over any number of issues at present, the lack of competitive polls in Russia and China and the smaller influence of India ensures that the US polls are the most closely tracked. Moreover, the extensive domestic and international media coverage amplifies the election's significance, framing it as a pivotal moment for global governance and norms.

TRUMP ADDS TO THE HYPE

While the explanation above shows how any US election can become a topic of worldwide interest, notable policy distinctions between the competitors or the behaviour of candidates can also add to the hype. And, of course, Trump is a lightning rod for both points.

The former US president has always had a knack for engaging the attention of the media. It was what powered him to his historic win against Hillary Clinton.

After Trump took the reins in 2017, the world saw significant changes in the global order. In two years, Trump changed the status quo in the Middle East by breaking the nuclear deal with Iran. There were also some developments in the relations between North Korea and its Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un. Given his wild card reputation, many political scientists worried about the possibility of widespread war. But then, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, Trump lost the White House to Joe Biden in 2020.

The possibility of Trump’s return raises questions about whether he will oversee another transformation of the global order.

Frankly, we know that, regardless of the election outcome, there will not be much change in US foreign policy, whether it is in Ukraine, the Middle East, Taiwan, or the South China Sea. Trump has, of course, commented on every situation in international politics, from the Ukraine war to the Middle East massacre of Palestinians. However, he could bring about another twist in the Iran-Israel conflict. Trump has also been talking for a long time about NATO's involvement in the Ukraine war.

During his last term, Trump spoke about his limited confidence in NATO, claiming 'he will not be paying for NATO if you (other countries) do not pay a similar amount of their GDP for the defence pact.

On the other hand, Kamala Harris has been adamant about NATO's strong support for Ukraine.

Another foreign policy talking point is the war in the Middle East, particularly Israel’s offensives in Gaza and Lebanon. Trump and Harris are both competing with each other to outdo their support for Israel. However, the deterioration in Washington’s relationship with Tehran under Trump’s tenure should be a point of note. The current Iran-Israel conflict has reached its peak due to direct attacks on each other’s territory. Trump’s firm stance against Iran may shift the calculus again.

While those of us outside the US may focus on foreign policy, Trump’s domestic politics are worth noting too. Perhaps most significant are the connections between his rhetoric and the ideology of white supremacy. Under his ‘Make America Great Again’ slogan, Trump has been a determined, vocal, and strong supporter of anti-immigrant policies whereas Harris and the Democrats are lightly in favour of immigration.

There is also the question of abortion rights, which is likely to be an important issue during the election. Trump has justified his position as a vocal anti-abortion campaigner, but it remains to be seen whether this increases his share of the vote.

Due to his ability to focus and direct media attention, Trump has become a key factor in why US elections draw so many eyes.

[Rajib Das is a bdnews24.com sub-editor currently on leave to study transnational governance at the European University Institute in Italy]