Published : 31 Jul 2026, 03:03 AM
Updated : 08 Sep 2026, 09:29 AM
Wildfires are raging across Europe and North America this summer, yet global fire emissions have hit their lowest level in 25 years, a trend scientists say isn't really a contradiction, but rather a reflection of how differently humans are shaping fire patterns in different parts of the world.
Spain's wildfire is now the country's largest on record, spanning more than 500 square kilometres, while European wildfires overall have burned nearly as much land as in 2025's record-breaking year.
In Canada and the US, the amount of land burned this summer is at least 25 percent above the 10-year average, more than double what it was just a few decades ago, with thick smoke choking large areas across both countries and causing unhealthy air quality for millions.
"It does seem like a paradox because we're talking about increases in fires, yet the global numbers have been going down and down. But they're both true," said fire scientist Mike Flannigan of Thompson Rivers University in Canada.
University of Colorado fire scientist Jennifer Balch said fires are worsening in terms of size, intensity, speed and frequency, particularly in the US, Canada and Europe.
"Extreme wildfires are on the rise globally in different parts of the world. And that's the piece that has us shaking in our boots," she said.
Yet global carbon emissions from burning fires are at their lowest point since satellite tracking began nearly 25 years ago, according to the European climate monitor Copernicus, standing at roughly half of what they were in the early 2000s.
Scientists say the explanation lies largely in Africa and Asia, which together account for more than three-quarters of global fire emissions.
Fire activity across both continents has fallen sharply in recent years, driven mainly by changing agricultural practices, better fire management, and shifting land use patterns.
"Africa dominates the global fire activity," said UCLA water and fire scientist Park Williams.
"So if there's a trend in Africa, then that's going to be the trend in the global fire activity. In sub-Saharan Africa, fire activity over the last 25 years has gone down pretty dramatically."
Traditional savanna fires that once swept across Africa each year have declined significantly as more land shifts toward housing and farming, researchers said, while shrinking wildland areas in Asia have similarly helped curb overall burning.
In Asia and the Amazon, fires are often deliberately set to clear land for agriculture, experts said, meaning the global decline is being driven largely by demographic and land-use changes rather than any reduction in fire risk.
Meanwhile, climate change continues to drive hotter and drier conditions across North America and Europe, fuelling more extreme fires, scientists said, with warmer, wetter nights also giving forests and exhausted firefighters less time to recover between successive blazes.
Hotter temperatures pull more moisture from the ground, making vegetation easier to ignite, while also lengthening the wildfire season across North America, particularly in northern forests that once saw only a handful of fire-prone days each year.
Scientists note that North America has long been effective at fire suppression, but warn that climate change is steadily eroding that advantage as fires grow more frequent and intense.
Experts warn that fire activity could worsen further in the coming months as a strong El Niño weather pattern develops, one that is likely to fuel more fires across the Amazon, Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific.
This also brings wetter conditions, and a different set of risks, to the western United States, where increased grass growth in deserts could set the stage for future grass fires like those seen in Los Angeles in 2025 and Hawaii in 2023.
