US consumer prices likely snapped back after being restrained by government shutdown distortions

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates in the 3.50–3.75 percent range this month

US consumer prices likely accelerated in December as some of the distortions related to the government shutdown that had artificially lowered inflation in November unwound, which would cement expectations of the Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged this month.

The 43-day shutdown prevented the collection of prices for October, resulting in the Bureau of Labor Statistics using a carry-forward method to impute data, especially for rents, to compile November's CPI report. While prices for November were collected, that was not until the second half of the month when retailers were offering holiday season discounts.

The distortions were prevalent in rent measures and goods prices. The anticipated pick-up in consumer inflation would follow on the heels of news last week that the unemployment rate dipped in December even as job growth was tepid.

"We expect the CPI report to show a meaningful payback after collection issues, due to the government shutdown," said Oscar Munoz, chief US macro strategist at TD Securities. "We won't see the full reversal in consumer prices, however, since the payback in rents will have to wait until the April 2026 report."

The CPI likely increased by 0.3 percent last month amid higher food and energy prices, mostly electricity because of data centers, a Reuters survey of economists predicted. In the 12 months through December, the CPI is forecast to have increased 2.7 percent, matching November's gain.

The BLS estimated the CPI rose 0.2 percent from September to November. The carry-forward imputation method treated October prices as unchanged. Higher inflation has eroded President Donald Trump's approval ratings and will remain a political hot button in 2026 as Trump and his fellow Republicans battle to retain control of the US Congress.

A BROAD INCREASE IN PRICES IS EXPECTED

Economists expected an acceleration in prices, particularly for goods like new motor vehicles, furniture and apparel, though the softer bias in rents likely persisted. The BLS calculates rents and owners' equivalent rent using 6-month panel collection. It said in late December the "effects of the carry-forward imputation method utilized in October 2025 will resolve in April 2026 when that housing panel is used again."

The BLS estimated the one-month price change for rent and owners' equivalent rent, using the sixth root of 6-month price change for the sample collected in November, which was then used to derive the index level for that month based off the October index level.

Away from the shutdown-distortions, economists expect November's CPI report to show the gradual pass-through of Trump's sweeping tariffs to higher inflation that had prevailed prior to the longest shutdown on record. Businesses have largely absorbed some of the import duties.

"The rebound in goods prices is likely to be more pronounced than in services given the sector's wider prevalence of holiday discounting," said Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo. "Price growth in services also should see a bounce-back in December, particularly in the more seasonally-sensitive categories of lodging away from home and airfares."

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI is forecast to have increased 0.3 percent in December. The so-called core CPI was predicted to have advanced 2.7 percent year-on-year in December after gaining 2.6 percent in November. The BLS estimated the core CPI climbed 0.2 percent from September to November.

The Fed tracks the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price indexes for its 2 percent inflation target. The US central bank is expected to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50 percent-3.75 percent range at its Jan 27-28 meeting.

An escalation in tensions between Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Trump has left most economists not expecting a rate cut before Powell's term ends in May. The Trump administration has opened a criminal investigation into Powell, which the Fed chief called a "pretext" to influence rates.

"We have a lot of manufactured uncertainties generated by Washington, that is obviously not good for the economy, and ultimately, I think that could lead to a higher inflation," said Sung Won Sohn, finance and economics professor at Loyola Marymount University. "We want low interest rates, but this is not the way to do it."