Cyclone ‘Montha’ may lash India's Andhra coast on Tuesday evening

The cyclonic storm Montha, brewing over the Bay of Bengal, is likely to cross the coast of India’s Andhra Pradesh on Tuesday evening or night, according to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD).

The BMD issued a special weather bulletin on Monday afternoon with the latest update on the storm’s movement.

Meteorologist Md Tariful Newaz Kabir said the storm, located over the southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining southeast Bay, has been moving north-northwest and is now situated over the southwest Bay and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal.

At 12pm on Monday, the cyclone was centred about 1,300km southwest of Chattogram port, 1,245km southwest of Cox’s Bazar port, 1,200km southwest of Mongla port, and 1,190km southwest of Payra port, the BMD said.

It added that the system is likely to move further north-northwest and intensify before crossing the Andhra Pradesh coast.

Within 54km of the cyclone centre, the maximum sustained wind speed is 62kph, rising to 88kph in gusts or squalls. The sea near the centre of the cyclone is reported to be very rough.

The BMD has advised the ports of Chattogram, Cox’s Bazar, Mongla, and Payra to hoist distant cautionary signal No. two.

All fishing boats and trawlers operating in the north Bay of Bengal have been advised to remain close to the coast and proceed with caution, and not to venture into the deep sea until further notice.

According to the BMD, the low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal developed into a cyclonic storm at 3am on Sunday.

The Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (ESCAP) named the storm Montha -- a name given by Thailand, meaning “beautiful” or “fragrant flower”.

Although Montha is unlikely to make landfall in Bangladesh, the country is expected to experience several days of rainfall. After the cyclone crosses land, rain is likely in coastal and several inland regions of Bangladesh, said Tariful.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said Montha may intensify into a severe cyclonic storm by midnight Monday (Bangladesh time) and could barrel into the Andhra Pradesh coast on Tuesday evening or night. The maximum sustained wind speed may reach 90–100kph, increasing to 110kph in gusts or squalls.

A weather system is classified as a cyclonic storm when the maximum sustained wind speed near its centre exceeds 62kph.

The BMD classifies cyclones into four intensity categories:

• Cyclonic storm: 62-88kph

• Severe cyclonic storm: 89-117kph

• Very severe (hurricane-force) cyclone: 118-219kph

• Super cyclone: 220kph or more

The most recent cyclone to form in the Bay of Bengal earlier this season was Cyclone Shakti, which had little to no impact on Bangladesh.