Home
+
Published : 24 Aug 2024, 05:25 AM
As an unprecedented flooding fuelled by mountain runoff from upstream India and heavy rainfall devastates vast swathes of Feni and Cumilla districts, questions are being asked about whether the disaster and its impact could have been lessened.
With over 4.5 million people already affected directly, the scale of the catastrophe presents an enormous challenge to the Bangladesh economy and its people, already smarting from weeks of deadly unrest during a civil uprising that brought down Sheikh Hasina's 15-year rule.
Experts argue there was a lack of adequate preparation to tackle the floods in the northeastern and eastern regions of Bangladesh.
Although predicting the exact severity of the flood was challenging, information about heavy rains in upstream India and potential flood risks was available to Bangladesh.
However, this information was neither effectively communicated to the public nor were sufficient measures taken by the authorities.
The disaster management and relief ministry’s secretary claimed efforts were made to evacuate people from affected areas beforehand, but many were reluctant to leave.
The Bangladesh Meteorological Department said they had shared the advanced warning data with the relevant government departments, and therefore, they are not at fault.
However, a water resources expert pointed out that the language used in weather warnings is often too technical for the general public to understand.
According to him, the language of the messages needs to be changed as well.
On Wednesday, strong currents from India's Tripura surged towards Feni and Cumilla, submerging large areas within hours.
This has raised questions about the role of the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre.
The centre's Executive Engineer Sardar Uday Raihan told bdnews24.com, “We have circulated the forecast, but it can take a day or two to reach the field level. The flood was also severe.”
“We knew there was a risk of heavy rain in August, but the exact timing is always uncertain. In cases of sudden flooding, we get only one to three days' notice, which is actually quite limited for overall disaster management preparation.”
“Bangladesh's preparedness was insufficient due to the limited time available to respond to the sudden flood,” he added.
Meteorologist Md Abul Kalam Mallik told bdnews24.com that after issuing warnings about heavy rainfall in specific areas, the flood warning centre uses this data to to provide flood forecasts.
“We provided timely warnings through our website and media. Therefore, the failure to manage the flood is not on us,” he said.
“The responsibility for handling the disaster before, during, and after falls on the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief. They are also tasked with reaching the grassroots level.”
Regarding the actions of the ministry, Secretary Md Kamrul Hasan told bdnews24.com: “This was a sudden flood; we have never faced such severity before.
“We attempted to evacuate people three days in advance, but many were reluctant to leave their homes. Some came, but those with concrete houses did not want to move.”
'UNINTELLIGIBLE' WORDINGS OF FLOOD WARNING
On Aug 18, the FFWC issued a mid-term flood forecast: “The water levels of the rivers in the South-East hilly areas of the South-East hilly basin may increase until the 20th of August.”
“From the 22th of August to the 28th of August, heavy rainfall could cause rapid short-term increases in water levels at some points in the major rivers of the basin.”
Ainun Nishat, a climate change and river expert, said the forecast language is not comprehensible to the public.
He urged the FFWC and the BMD to change the language used in their communications.
He said, “For the past 50 years, they’ve been using the same language, and no one listens. However, if people paid attention, they would understand what’s happening.”
“If I am shown a red signal, I’ll know what action to take. There is room for improvement here.”
The expert recommended preparing a report within 10 days, reviewing actions needed domestically and in coordination with India, and starting work accordingly.
ANY PREPARATION?
Executive Engineer Uday said, “Water naturally flows into Bangladesh from upstream, and there is no way to avoid this.”
"We must be prepared, although in recent times, we haven't experienced such large-scale flooding. Consequently, our preparations were somewhat limited."
In a May conference of Indian meteorologists, the possibility of above-normal rainfall and flooding in August in the eastern parts of India and Bangladesh was discussed, with representatives from Bangladesh’s Meteorological Department reportedly present.
In a conference held in May in India, meteorologists had already raised concerns about the possibility of higher-than-normal rainfall and flooding in August in eastern India and Bangladesh.
Reports indicate that a representative from the BMD also attended this conference.
The BMD, in its long-term forecast for August, had warned that heavy rainfall could trigger short-term flooding in parts of the northern, northeastern, and southeastern hilly regions of Bangladesh.
On Jul 2, during a meeting of the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council, or ECNEC, former Hasina ordered advanced preparations in light of the anticipated August floods.
From Aug 16 onwards, the BMD regularly issued warnings about heavy rainfall.
Mohammad Moniruzzaman Khan, professor of Dhaka University’s Institute of Disaster Management and Vulnerability Studies, told bdnews24.com: “The heavy rainfall causing the floods did not happen suddenly. Even if it did, we should have known the weather situation for the next 10 days by this time.”
“But what were our preparations? We lacked readiness.”
He also attributed the severity of the floods to the interim government's removal of all elected local representatives.
"A significant vacuum has been created. They could have been removed after six months. At the end of the day, no one is taking responsibility. Whether good or bad, the area's responsibility falls on them."
He explained that the timing of this event, coupled with the absence of administrative and local government coordination, has made it difficult to manage the situation.
The entire setup had already been significantly disrupted during the protests, he added.
Nishat also expressed concerns about the lack of preparation in Bangladesh to tackle the floods.
He told bdnews24.com, "When the heavy rains began around the 16th of August, and it was raining heavily in the eastern regions, everyone should have taken responsibility."
“The forecast needs to be understood properly. The Meteorological Department issued warnings of heavy rains, and India’s Meteorological Department did the same. Yet, no one took action, and suddenly, we were surprised,” he added.
WHAT MEASURES WERE NEEDED?
Samarendra Karmakar, former director of Bangladesh Meteorological Department, or BMD, told bdnews24.com: “This time the weather forecast was somewhat accurate. But we could never have imagined it would rain so much in this area.”
The rivers are bound to overflow as they are holding water beyond capacity, said Karmakar.
“There is no such thing as flood shelter,” he added.
Nishat said: “It is normal for floods to occur at any time during the monsoon. As such, the dams could have been repaired beforehand.”
“The local disaster management committees could have been asked to take precautions. People could have prepared themselves in time if they knew.”
INDIA UNDER FIRE
People have been blaming India for the deluge ever since the floodwaters battered parts of Bangladesh on Wednesday.
Students have also been demonstrating in several universities pointing the finger at their next-door neighbour for the floods as Tripura state opened the Dumbur Dam after 31 years.
Nahid Islam, the information advisor, said: “We are witnessing the upstream waters rushing into Bangladesh, creating this flood. The sudden release of water without prior warning or preparation has shown India's disregard for humanity and lack of cooperation with Bangladesh."
On Friday, Climate Change Advisor Syeda Rizwana Hasan said the interim government will ask India to notify downstream Bangladesh before opening the dams to release water through shared rivers.
“If there is no agreement, India being an upstream country should still inform us before opening the dams according to international laws. But they did not follow the rule this time,” said the environment and climate change advisor.
In response to the allegations, India’s external affairs ministry said: “We have noted the concerns expressed in Bangladesh that the opening of the Dumbur Dam upstream of the Gomti River in Tripura is causing the floods in the eastern districts of Bangladesh. This is factually incorrect.”
The statement explained that the areas adjacent to the Gomti River in both countries have experienced the highest rainfall of the year in the last couple of days.
The flooding in Bangladesh was primarily caused by water from the dam’s downstream areas, the statement added.
India also said there are three water monitoring stations along the 120km river path upstream from Bangladesh, including the Amarpur station, from which flood updates are forwarded to Bangladesh under a bilateral protocol.
Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Pranay Verma also spoke with Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus about the matter on Thursday.
The Chief Advisor’s Press Secretary Shafiqul Alam, while briefing journalists, said: "There was a discussion about the rain in Tripura and the dam. Verma said there was an automatic release of the dams due to the high water levels."
Tripura Power Minister Ratan Lal Nath also dismissed the claim that India’s opening of a dam gate without warning is what led to horrific flooding in Bangladesh.
“If [the student advisors] want to follow the proper procedures and cross the border into India, I will take them to the Dumbur Dam myself to show them that it is not correct that we opened the gate,” he told BBC Bangla.
“The propaganda being done about the opening of the Dumbur gate is nothing but misinformation. No gate has been opened at the Gomti Hydro Power Station,” he added.
“The maximum storage capacity of the power plant reservoir is 94 metres. When the water level rises above that level, it automatically exists through the gate. Once the water level drops, the gate closes by itself.”
He continued: “As the water level exceeds the maximum holding capacity, the water is coming out through two gates at the reservoir. Through one of the gates, the water is coming out at a ratio of 50 percent. The people in the concerned area were alerted about the situation in advance through megaphone announcements.”
In addition to Bangladesh, the Indian state of Tripura is also seeing the worst flooding in three decades. The state’s Gomti district has been hit particularly hard.
The death toll in Tripura stood at 23 until Friday. As many as 65,000 people have gone to shelters in 8 districts of the state.
On Aug 21, 1993, Tripura’s Sabroom recorded 247mm of rainfall in a single day.
This year, on Aug 20, the region recorded 375.8mm of rainfall after 31 years.
[Writing in English by Ruhshabah Tabassum Huda and Fariha Bristy]
