ICC prosecutor's move not a political risk for Netanyahu, other problems are

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrives at his Likud party faction meeting at the Knesset, Israel's parliament, in Jerusalem May 20, 2024 REUTERS

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has in the past week faced a request by the ICC prosecutor for an arrest warrant to be issued against him over the Gaza war, public rebukes by cabinet partners and a threat by one to quit.

The decision by the International Criminal Court's prosecutor is unlikely to do Netanyahu much harm among voters, and has for now rallied many Israelis behind him.

But problems are piling up for Netanyahu on multiple fronts and his coalition government's long-term political prospects are widely seen as receding.

Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister and the leader of the right-wing Likud party, has come out fighting.

"I'm not concerned with my future, I'm concerned with Israel's future," Netanyahu told CNBC on Wednesday. "I'm going to do what I have to do to finish this war."

He has dismissed ICC prosecutor Karim Khan's assertion on Monday that as Israel's prime minister he bears responsibility for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza as a "complete distortion of reality".

He has also shrugged off criticism by Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, who urged him last week to forswear any military reoccupation of Gaza, and his office has brushed aside a threat by war cabinet minister Benny Gantz to quit if Netanyahu does not commit to an agreed vision for post-conflict Gaza.

Khan's announcement has temporarily rallied Israelis in defence of the prime minister against what President Isaac Herzog described as a "one-sided move" taken in bad faith.

But the solidarity may not stretch far. Although opposition Head Yair Lapid condemned the ICC statement, he also made clear he would keep working to bring down Netanyahu's government.

While Gantz also came to Netanyahu's defence over Khan's announcement, two of Gantz's aides said the retired general's threat to quit the cabinet if Netanyahu does not commit to a six-point plan for Gaza and Israel by June 8 still stands.

THREAT TO COALITION

If Gantz quits, Netanyahu would lose the backing of his most formidable political rival and his centrist bloc, which has helped broaden support for the government in Israel and abroad.

The prime minister would still command a majority in parliament with the backing of ultra-nationalist parties, who angered Washington even before the war and have since called for a return to a complete Israeli occupation of Gaza.

This would put new pressures on Netanyahu, could increase strains already apparent in relations with the United States and would be likely to raise new questions about how long such a government could survive.

"Parliamentarily speaking, it can survive for a while, and it will. But it won't last," said political analyst Amotz Asa-El. "Wars anywhere in democracies demand consensus, they demand a government that is followed by the social mainstream, and by a clear majority of the political system."

"A narrow government, like the one Israel will be left with after Gantz's departure, will not deliver this," said Asa-El, research fellow at the Shalom Hartman Institute in Jerusalem.

The government also faces difficulties in a row over a new military draft bill.

Netanyahu's ultra-Orthodox coalition partners are determined to keep religious seminary students exempt from conscription, while Gallant and Gantz want more equitable national service for all Israelis.

Failure to reach an agreement could, political analysts say, bring down the government over what has long been a hot-button issue for Israelis and has become even more sensitive during the Gaza war. One minister, speaking on condition of anonymity, said he does not expect the government to survive.

Netanyahu's popularity has also been damaged by security failings in the Hamas-led attack on Israel on Oct 7 last year, which prompted the Israeli military offensive against Hamas in Gaza in response.

Some analysts see a possible political lifeline for Netanyahu in the possibility of a deal that he would prize being reached on normalising ties with Saudi Arabia.

The White House said on Monday the United States and Saudi Arabia were close to a final agreement on a bilateral defence pact that once completed would be part of a broad accord presented to Netanyahu to decide whether to make concessions to the Palestinians to secure normalising ties with Riyadh.

A spokesman for Netanyahu did not immediately respond to a request for comment.