Carney ahead in polls as Canada enters last week of election campaign

Carney says Trump's tariffs and talk of annexation pose a huge threat and mean that Canada needs to reduce its reliance on the US

Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney and his wife Diana Fox Carney wave from his plane in Halifax Stanfield International Airport during his Liberal Party election campaign tour in Goffs, Nova Scotia, Canada April 21, 2025. REUTERS

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, ahead in polls in the run-up to an April 28 election, renewed calls on Monday for voters to give him a strong mandate to deal with US President Donald Trump's tariff threat.

Carney says Trump's tariffs and talk of annexation pose a huge threat and mean that Canada needs to reduce its reliance on the United States and restructure its economy.

"We need a government that has a strong mandate, a clear mandate. We need a government that has a plan that meets the moment," Carney said during a campaign event in Charlottetown in the Atlantic province of Prince Edward Island.

The 60-year-old ex-central banker, who had no prior political experience before running to become Liberal leader earlier this year, billed himself as "someone who knows how to negotiate ... (and) how to manage a crisis."

The Liberal platform, which promises additional spending of around C$130 billion over the next four years, predicts that the 2025/26 deficit will be C$62.3 billion, far higher than the C$42.2 billion forecast in December.

Carney replaced Justin Trudeau, who had been in power for more than nine years and was the focus of opposition attacks about inflation, high immigration levels and a housing crisis.

The official opposition Conservatives had been 20 points ahead at the turn of the year but now trail the Liberals.

A rolling three-day Nanos poll released on Monday put the Liberals on 43.7% public support with the Conservatives on 36.3%. The left-leaning New Democrats, who compete with the Liberals for the center-left vote, trailed at 10.7%.

If repeated on election day, that would give the Liberals a majority of the 343 seats in the House of Commons.

Elections Canada said a record 2 million people had cast their ballots in the first of day of advance voting on Friday, which was a national holiday. Around 28 million Canadians are registered to vote.

Voter turnout in federal elections from the 1950s to the early 1990s ranged between 70% and 80%, but it has gradually declined. In the 2021 election, only 62.3% of eligible voters cast ballots.

Ipsos Public Affairs CEO Darrell Bricker said the advance polls could indicate that overall turnout will be higher, or merely reflect parties' efforts to boost early voting.

"Too early to say which it is this time," he said in a post on X.

The Nanos poll of 1,289 people was carried out on April 17, 19 and 20 and is considered accurate to within 2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.