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Published : 29 Apr 2025, 08:08 AM
The first Canadian election polls closed on Monday after a campaign in which US President Donald Trump's tariffs and musings about annexing Canada became the central issue.
Polls in Atlantic Canada's four provinces closed, while people in Ontario and Quebec, the provinces with the most electoral districts, four western provinces and three territories were still voting.
In early counting, the Liberals were leading in 21 of Atlantic Canada's 32 districts, which are also called seats, followed by the Conservatives with 11. The Liberals held 23 seats before the election.
Election results will trickle in as polls close at staggered times across the country.
Trump's threats ignited a wave of patriotism that swelled support for Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney, a political newcomer who previously led two G7 central banks.
Polls have tightened in recent days, showing the Liberals leading the Conservatives by at least a few percentage points. A Liberal win in the popular vote usually results in the party forming government, as much of the Conservatives' support is in rural areas with fewer seats.
Trump re-emerged as a campaign factor last week, declaring that he might raise a 25% tariff on Canadian-made cars because the US does not want them. He said earlier he might use "economic force" to make Canada the 51st state.
"This is probably the most consequential election in my lifetime," said Kelly Saunders, a political science professor at Brandon University in the province of Manitoba. "Everything has been so overshadowed by the threats coming out of the United States."
Carney has emphasised that his experience handling economic issues makes him the best leader to deal with Trump, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has tapped into concerns about the cost of living, crime and a housing crisis.
Trump, in a social media post on Monday, reiterated his call for Canada to become the 51st state.
"Good luck to the Great people of Canada," he said. "Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel, Aluminum, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, QUADRUPLE in size, WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America. No more artificially drawn line from many years ago."
Poilievre, who has watched support for Carney surge in recent months as Trump mused about absorbing Canada, responded on social media to the president's comment.
"President Trump, stay out of our election. The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box," Poilievre said.
Carney posted: "Elbows up, Canada. #Never51." "Elbows up" is a hockey reference that Canadians have adopted as a slogan to stand up to Trump.
The Liberal prime minister has sought to distance himself from his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, who was deeply unpopular when he said in January he would resign after nearly a decade in power. The Conservatives led polls by some 20 points around that time.
Poilievre has attracted more young voters than usual for the Conservatives, focusing his campaign more on living costs and crime.
"I'm probably going to go Carney on this one just because right now, I feel like we need stability," said Andy Hill, 37, a Vancouver-based mortgage broker. "Being in the English banking system and being in the Canadian banking system, he really understands the economy."
Bob Lowe, a 66-year-old cattle rancher who lives south of Calgary, said he has already cast his ballot for the Conservatives. He said his top concern is Canada's flagging economic growth.
The economy had seen a fledgling recovery until the U.S. imposed tariffs.
CONSERVATIVES FOCUS ON ECONOMY
Lowe said the Conservatives have focused on the economy all along, and that he believes the Liberals have been stoking Canadians' anxieties about Trump to win another term.
"Poilievre has managed to keep the focus on the economy and a strong Canada, and Carney's campaign is based on fear. That's it in a nutshell," Lowe said.
Saunders, however, predicts the Liberals will win a majority of seats and says it would take a "magical scenario" for the Conservatives to pull off a victory. Tensions with the US have caused supporters of two smaller parties, the New Democratic Party and the Bloc Quebecois, to shift to the Liberals in polls.
A party needs to win 172 seats to form a majority government.
The campaign ended on a somber note on Sunday after a man rammed an SUV through a crowd at a Filipino community festival in Vancouver, killing at least 11 people and injuring dozens.
