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Investors are bracing for more twists and turns on trade after Trump this month paused many of the heftiest import tariffs on other countries until July
Published : 27 Apr 2025, 08:29 AM
A packed upcoming week for markets will test a US stocks rebound, with investors focused on a wave of corporate results led by Apple and Microsoft, while the prospect of global trade developments threatens to cause volatility at any time.
The monthly US employment report, data on first-quarter US economic growth and an inflation update add to the potential market-sensitive events in the coming week, as investors weigh whether the recent strength suggests the worst of a tariff-induced equities tumble is over.
With the S&P on pace for a solid week of gains, the US benchmark index has pared its recent slide by about half but remains down some 10% from its February record high.
Sentiment for equities has been lifted this week by signals of easing in the Trump administration's trade stance, including possible de-escalation with China. But the situation remains fluid and fresh developments on tariffs could undermine the market gains.
"There seems to be some potential for compromise on the tariff situation," which has supported the recent rally, said Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners.
But stocks will remain sensitive to "the news flow that day," Mullaney said. "If it's positive on tariffs, the market goes up. If it's negative on tariffs, the market goes down."
Investors are bracing for more twists and turns on trade after President Donald Trump this month paused many of the heftiest import tariffs on other countries until July. Trump's pullback came after his April 2 announcement of sweeping levies set off severe stock volatility and rattled the bond market.
Tariff uncertainty will be a critical topic for upcoming corporate reports.
About 180 S&P 500 companies representing over 40% of the index's market value are set to post quarterly results in the coming week, according to UBS. Chief among them are Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta Platforms, four of the "Magnificent Seven" megacap tech and growth companies whose shares have faltered in 2025 after putting up massive gains the prior two years.
With over one-third of S&P 500 companies having reported, profits are on pace to beat expectations for the period. S&P 500 earnings are on pace to have climbed 9.7% in the first quarter from a year ago, up from an estimate of an 8% gain on April 1, according to LSEG IBES.
"People were expecting the worst, and that typically happens when markets retrench," said King Lip, chief strategist at BakerAvenue Wealth Management in San Francisco. "But the numbers really haven't been that bad."
Still, some companies have pointed to challenges ahead. Consumer staples company Procter & Gamble, soda and snacks company PepsiCo and medical equipment maker Thermo Fisher all cut their annual profit forecasts.
Investors also will watch the extent to which the new global trade regime is hitting economic data, with broad concerns the new tariffs will drive up prices and slow growth.
Data in the coming week includes gross domestic product for the first quarter, and the March reading of the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key inflation reading.
The monthly US jobs report, due on May 2, could provide the biggest test for markets. The labor market has demonstrated stability in recent months, and employment is expected to have climbed by 135,000 jobs in April, according to a Reuters poll.
But doubts about the economic outlook are being fueled by dour readings in consumer sentiment and other surveys, with investors eager to see if such troubling "soft data" will translate into weakness in reports seen as giving more concrete evidence about the economy.
"If the consumer is going to be the engine of ongoing growth in the US, it puts the burden of proof onto the jobs report," said Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY.
