IMF says world is drifting toward more adverse growth scenario as energy disruptions continue

Chief economist says forecast assumes quick resolution, but war remains uncertain

International Monetary Fund chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas attends the “World Economic Outlook” press briefing at the IMF/World Bank 2025 Annual Meetings in Washington, DC, US, Oct 14, 2025. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo

The world may be already drifting towards the International Monetary Fund's "adverse scenario" forecast of weaker 2.5 percent global growth in 2026 even as it released on Tuesday a more benign reference forecast of 3.1 percent growth, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said.

Gourinchas told a news conference that the reference forecast assumes that the conflict is resolved quickly and that energy prices normalise in the second half of 2026, but acknowledged that the war's developments are fluid and changing daily. He said the reference forecast was "not quite yet" irrelevant.

"I would say that we are somewhere in between the reference scenario and the adverse scenario," Gourinchas said. "And of course, every day that passes and every day that we have more disruption in energy, we are drifting closer towards the adverse scenario."