US consumer sentiment ticks up, shows post-election partisan flip

Shoppers in a Target store in Chicago, Illinois, US November 21, 2023. REUTERS

US consumer sentiment ticked up for a fourth straight month in November, led by a big upswing in sentiment among Republicans following Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election.

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index climbed to 71.8 this month, the highest since April, from 70.5 in October. The result was shy of the median estimate among economists polled by Reuters for a reading of 73.7 and was lower than the preliminary reading of 73.0, a pulse-taking that was completed before the Nov 5 election.

"Overall, the stability of national sentiment this month obscures discordant partisan patterns," Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said in a statement. "In a mirror image of November 2020, the expectations index surged for Republicans and fell for Democrats this month, a reflection of the two groups’ incongruous views of how Trump’s policies will influence the economy."

Indeed, overall sentiment among Republicans surged by 15.5 points, the largest increase since Trump won the 2016 election. It plunged 10.1 points among Democrats in the wake of the loss by Vice President Kamala Harris, their party's nominee. It also ticked down among political independents, whom exit poll data from Edison Research showed narrowly favoured Harris over Trump.

Meanwhile, households continued to see muted inflation pressures in the year ahead but do see greater price-rise risk over Trump's coming four-year term.

The survey showed one-year inflation expectations at 2.6%, the lowest since December 2020, but five-year expectations rose to 3.2%, the highest in a year, from 3.0% in October. Many economists see a risk of rekindled inflation arising from Trump's economic agenda of tax cuts, higher tariffs and restricted immigration.