The Modi visit: After the hype is over

The Modi visit has been a public relations victory on all sides. Few state visits have ever gone this way. No nasty rallies, protest marches, or unkind remarks to sour the mood. The major "anti-Indian" opposition party BNP led by Khaleda Zia even met Modi, and complained about the "lack of democracy" within Bangladesh, making Modi not just the big neighbour but the big brother as well. Not even Indira Gandhi in 1972 achieved what Modi did in just two days. He is the best man driving India's diplomatic chariot in a long time.

However, after the Modi fever subsides a few questions will be asked about the real achievements of the sojourn and what both countries can look forward to in the future.

At the bureaucratic level, this has meant the signing of 22 treaties and MoUs headed by the Land Boundary Agreement, a symbolically significant but dated issue. The other agreements range from that to brass-tack ones like a 2 billion dollar line of credit, research agreements between Indian and Bangladeshi institutions, and anti-trafficking protocols to name a few. And Reliance and Adani groups have inked paper to set up power-plants in Bangladesh which are needed badly.

But concerns remain. There are a few key areas:

A. Bi-lateral trade enhancement which interests India most.

B. Teesta and other river management which is Bangladesh's major interest.

C. Security management issues that affect both countries.

Of the 22 treaties and MoUs signed between the two countries, covering a gamut of issues, the main point in future will not be the scope of interest but the level of implementation.

Modi stressed to a cheering crowd of youngsters at the Bangabandhu International Conference Centre, that the two nations were equals and destined to grow together.

"This is an inter-dependent world and no nation, however powerful, can grow alone," he stressed.

"The era of expansionism is over, the one of inter-dependence has dawned and we understand the spirit of the times." Was he saying that India was different before?

He however hinted that he would need to build consensus within India before the agreements could be pushed through, somewhat on the lines of the Land Boundary Agreement.

"We are a big country, we have so many states, and we are a democracy, so it takes time to build consensus on issues but I can promise you, we will settle the water sharing issues," he said.

He pitched for regional connectivity, referred to the BBIN (Bhutan-Bangladesh-India-Nepal) vision as an alternative to a SAARC Motor Vehicles Agreement, which could not happen because of Pakistan's objections.

He finished his speech with "Joy Bangla, Joy Hind" bowing to the audience with folded hands. The crowd loved it.

A few issues worth pondering

While bi-lateral trade between India and Bangladesh is significant at $6.9 billion in 2014-15, it is lopsided with Indian exports to Bangladesh at $6.2 billion and imports at $0.6 billion only.

This is making a section of the Bangladesh trading lobby unhappy.

"I don't think Indians have the mental frame to trade with a smaller neighbour like us. The gap grew to what it is now because both countries are not working together. We are not really co-operating; we are not left with business options.

"Indians are saying that the trade level will rise to 10 billion by 2018 but it will be 9 billion for Indians and maybe a billion from Bangladesh. Unless this equation changes, the relationship will not change."

While this statement is a little overwrought, the business lobby in Bangladesh do think bi-lateral trade has political implications beyond profit. And the reactions could be like that too.

But for Bangladesh it's Teesta that matters for the moment, and no signing is yet in sight. Mamata Banerjee has an election to take care of in 2016 and signing a treaty now may have high political costs. So the chance of any concrete move before 2016 is remote.

Water-sharing in Bangladesh is not just an environmental or political issue, but an emotional one as well, given the Farakka experience. Economist and activist Prof. Anu Mohammed of Jahangirnagar University spoke for many disgruntled Bangladeshis when he said that, while corporate interests are being served through bi-lateral talks, a comprehensive national and international agreement covering all the issues on natural resource sharing and environmental protection are being deliberately ignored by both parties.

The Rampal plant in the Sundarbans with which India is partnering is causing great ire. Two major incidents which led to oil and chemical spills in the forest have angered many, and in the future may become a diplomatic embarrassment for both.

The terrorism issue is now hogging a lot of headlines after the felling of several Bangladeshi bloggers at the hands of Islamic extremists while India's North-East is again becoming restive.

India certainly got a lot of cooperation from Bangladesh on this and should be happy. During previous eras under the BNP, the North-Eastern rebels found refuge in Bangladesh, but the present AL government has put its foot firmly down, and Bangladesh is no longer a sanctuary for them.

But what has been done in return by India, many ask. India will have to answer this soon before one-sided cooperation becomes a political question.

India's National Security Adviser Ajit Doval has called Bangladesh "India's most important neighbour," and in this statement may lay the key to relatively improving ties between the two.

While this has always been the case with Bangladesh, the situation may now be changing with India too. Security and threat perceptions are more important than ever before in policy formulation and the threats, economic and security, may be coming from China more than any others.

China is serious about ensuring that its influence is recognised as the paramount regional power and much flows from that. China's reaction to the visit as covered by its media doesn't show happy reactions.

No matter how strong India's link is with Bangladesh, China may call many shots here – something Delhi doesn't want. India will want to make Bangladesh less friendly towards China in its own interest. Bangladesh has been thrust into the middle of a growing regional rivalry, but is Bangladeshi diplomacy and diplomats up to the task?

The fear is that they have been asked to play in the big leagues but without top players. Only the future will tell how far the game will go.

But for Modi the visit has been a personally political triumph. Anyone who can whitewash cricket and celebrity stars on the media simply with crowd power in just a day will always be cheered for. No matter what the outcome, Modi won the heart.

Afsan Chowdhury is a bdnews24.com columnist.