Published : 01 Nov 2026, 01:16 AM
Updated : 01 Nov 2026, 01:16 AM
Pakistan is driving the rise in extreme poverty across West Asia, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (MENAAP), with nearly half of the region’s poorest people now living there, World Bank says.
The finding comes from the October edition of the bank’s Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan Economic Update, published on Oct 6.
It forecasts Pakistan’s economy will grow by 3.8 percent in the 2026-27 fiscal year, while its fiscal deficit will stand at 3.5 percent of gross domestic product.
The region has suffered severe economic losses from the conflict that began in February 2026, the report says.
Unlike previous energy crises, when oil-exporting countries generally benefited, Gulf oil producers have borne the heaviest costs this time because the Strait of Hormuz has been closed.
The World Bank projects the region’s economies, which expanded by an average of 3.3 percent in 2025, will contract by 2.1 percent on average in 2026.
“The impact of this conflict is not limited to the energy sector. It is also severely disrupting tourism, aviation and supply chains. Rising uncertainty is also weighing on financial markets and business confidence.”
As policymakers grapple with the immediate fallout, the region must also prepare for another major shift: the rise of artificial intelligence.
The report says the region is undergoing several transitions at different speeds, rather than a single transformation.
In most economies, AI is expected to affect the short-term outlook mainly by boosting productivity, rather than through widespread job losses.
Pakistan’s Poverty Burden
A report by Pakistan’s English-language daily Dawn on Oct 7, headlined “Pakistan drives regional rise in poverty levels”, highlighted the World Bank’s findings on poverty.
Nearly 48 percent of the region’s population living below the extreme-poverty line of $3 a day is in Pakistan, the report says.
Another 47 percent of the poor live in Afghanistan, the Syrian Arab Republic, and the Republic of Yemen.
The report describes the concentration of extreme poverty in a handful of countries as especially pronounced. Its figures put Pakistan at the centre of the regional burden, while Afghanistan, Syria and Yemen account for nearly all of the remaining share.
The findings come as conflict, disrupted trade and climate risks compound pressures on households already struggling to afford food and other essentials across the wider region today.
Food insecurity remains particularly worrying in the occupied West Bank and Gaza, as well as Yemen. Afghanistan, Djibouti, Lebanon and Pakistan are also facing significant pressure on food security.
The World Bank warns that an El Nino weather pattern stronger than usual is forecast for late 2026. It could push food prices higher and hit poor households hardest. Pakistan is directly exposed to the risk because of shifts in seasonal rainfall patterns.
Bangladesh’s Per Capita GDP Tops Pakistan’s
The World Bank’s latest country-level economic data show Bangladesh’s per capita gross domestic product is now $1,001.4 higher than Pakistan’s.
At the end of 2025, Bangladesh’s per capita GDP stood at $2,597.03, compared with $1,595.09 in Pakistan. India’s figure was $2,702.50.
