Nearly 2 million excess deaths followed China's sudden end of COVID curbs

To get the data, researchers performed statistical analysis using information from published obituaries and data from searches on Baidu

A woman delivers food to a residential compound that is under lockdown as outbreaks of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continue in Beijing, China, Nov 28, 2022. REUTERS

China'sabrupt move to dismantle its strictCOVID-19 regime, whichunleashedthe virus onto its 1.4 billion residents, could haveled tonearly2millionexcessdeathsin the following two months, a newUSstudy shows.

The study bythe federally fundedFred Hutchinson Cancer Center in Seattlewas taken from a sample of mortality data published by some universities in China and internet searches.

It found an estimated 1.87millionexcessdeathsfrom all causesoccurred among people over 30 years of agebetween December 2022 and January 2023, and were observed in all provinces in mainland China except Tibet.

China'sdecisionlast Decembertoendthe three-year zero-COVIDpolicy,which includedmass-testing and stringent and persistent quarantine lockdowns, led to a massive surge in hospitalisations anddeathsthat health experts say were largely unreported by the government.

The study, published on Thursday in JAMA Network Open, said the number ofexcessdeathsfar exceeded official Chinese government estimates inJanuarythat 60,000 people withCOVID-19 had died in hospital since the zero-COVIDpolicy was abandoned a month earlier.

In the study, researchers performed statistical analysis using information from published obituaries and data from searches on Baidu, a popular Chinese internet search engine.

"Our study ofexcessdeathsrelated to the lifting of the zero-COVIDpolicy in China sets an empirically derived benchmark estimate. These findings are important for understanding how thesuddenpropagation ofCOVID-19 across a population may impact population mortality," researchers wrote.

China'sNational Health Commission did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the report.

Global health experts repeatedly called on China to reveal more data as reports of rising hospitalisations anddeathsstarted to surface, and especially as the threat of new variants became a concern.

China stopped reporting official daily death results at theendof 2022. TheWorld Health Organizationsays there have been 121,628COVIDdeathsin China, out of a total global toll of almost 7million.

In a rare move, one Chinese province briefly published dataon its website in Julyshowing cremationsjumped 70%in the first quarter of this year that was later taken down.

In February,China'stop leaders declared a"decisive victory"overCOVID.

But the virus is still making its rounds in the country and on Thursday, Beijing health officials saidCOVIDis still the number one infectious disease in the capital, according to Chinese state media.

Officials cited a new omicron variant, called EG.5 or "Eris" nicknamed after the Greek Goddess of strife and discord, as thecurrentdominant strain across China.

"The National Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention said the proportion of the new variant EG.5 increased from 0.6% in April to 71.6% in August, becoming the dominant strain in most provinces in China," the Global Times reported.