John Kemp

John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. leads a group of specialist energy and commodities analysts for Reuters. His expertise lies in oil and gas, refining, energy policy, international trade, and the financial and foreign policy aspects of energy. Before joining Reuters in 2008, John worked as a senior analyst for Sempra Commodities, now part of JPMorgan. And, prior to that, he spent five years focusing on all aspects of the international economy as well as North American public policy for consultancy Oxford Analytica. John holds a degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics (PPE) from Oxford University.
John Kemp
Recession or not, US economy is losing momentum
In most countries, recessions are informally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real gross domestic product
Global diesel prices fall as economic slowdown intensifies
Distillate inventories have started to accumulate in Europe, North America and Asia, after depleting most of the time between the second half of 2020 and the second half of 2022
Soft landing for global economy remains a long shot
Despite the evident weakness in manufacturing and freight, the service sector and labour market are displaying strong momentum in major economies
Depleted distillates threaten to reignite inflation
Distillate fuel oil is the workhorse of the industrial economy, providing the main fuel used in trucking, railroads, manufacturing, construction, mining and oil and gas drilling
Europe nears end of winter with bulging gas stocks
Inventories were 260 terawatt-hours above the prior 10-year seasonal average, up from a surplus of 95 TWh
Investors have become super-bullish about oil
Refinery shutdowns linked to seasonal maintenance as well as sanctions on Russia’s diesel exports are expected to deplete fuel inventories
Recession now or later? Unenviable alternatives for 2023
In the first scenario, the global economy tips into recession, cutting distillate consumption, boosting inventories and lowering prices
Europe faces more high gas prices next winter
Given the relatively small volume of gas that can be stored, the inventory system cannot provide both seasonal and strategic storage at the same time