icddr,b clarifies director's statement in Economist report on COVID-19

The icddr,b has issued a clarification over the statement of its Executive Director Dr John D Clemens cited by British publication The Economist in a widely-discussed report on the state of the coronavirus epidemics in South Asia.

Referring to Clemens, the article, titled 'Infections are rising fast in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan', estimated that the number of COVID-19 cases in Dhaka may be as high as 750,000, despite the official tally being less than 60,000 at the time of publication.

In a statement on its website on Saturday, icddr,b said Clemens' statement in the Economist article was taken out of context. 

When asked how high the COVID-19 count might be, Clemens indicated that icddr,b’s staff have been under intensive surveillance for the disease since the beginning of the epidemic.

All employees with cough, fever, or shortness to breath are instructed to contact the Staff Clinic on a 24/7 hotline, and those with COVID-19 symptoms are instructed to be tested for the infection by the icddr,b laboratories.

"And for those who have COVID, icddr,b provides treatment, and in collaboration with IEDCR ensures isolation and does contact tracing," the research institute said.

Among the approximately 2,000 icddr,b employees who work at its Mohakhali campus, 4-5% have been infected by COVID-19 with no apparent relation to transmission on the icddr,b campus, it added.

Although this 4- 5% rate of COVID disease among icddr,b employees may not be representative of all community transmission in Dhaka, and generalisation to the entire city may not be justifiable, if the figures are extrapolated to the entire population of Dhaka, one could derive a total cumulative case count of at least 750,000, icddr,b explained.

Former icddr,b director Dr AM Zakir Hussain branded The Economist's estimate as 'unscientific', agruing that the data from one particular institution cannot be used to gauge the scenario in an entire city.

"You can't use a survey involving icddr,b employees to understand what's going on in a country or a city. The infection rate or propensity among icddr,b employees may not be the same as other people. They are working in close proximity to patients so their chances of getting infected are higher than most," the epidemiologist said.

"If the survey was conducted randomly then it would have been a different matter. But the data from a specific institution isn't representative of the country or a city. There's no scientific basis for this."