Bangladesh's political shift: from 2024 turmoil to hopes for a new beginning in 2025

The changing political landscape leaves the nation divided on future prospects, with hopes for reform and fears of regression

The year 2024 has been marked by significant shifts in Bangladesh's political and societal landscape, challenging long-standing structures and raising questions about what lies ahead.

From the demands for quota reforms to a full-fledged movement calling for the change of government, the nation is in the midst of a profound transformation.

While 2024 witnessed significant unrest, it has also opened the door to potential change.

The interim government, which took office in August under the leadership of Muhammad Yunus, has laid out a vision of an equal, democratic, and secular Bangladesh.

"We are committed to building a country where human rights are fully protected, and where equality prevails," Yunus said in his address to the nation.

"Our goal is one: to create a society that is just, inclusive, and free of discrimination."

As Bangladesh steps into 2025, the question of what the political future holds is at the forefront of people's minds.

Voters, political analysts, and leaders alike are pondering whether the country will embrace the changes proposed by the interim government, or revert to the old ways of governance.

In the midst of this uncertainty, questions surrounding the election process are also being raised.

The timeline for elections and the reforms needed before they take place are now central issues.

The interim government has already begun reforms in key sectors such as the constitution, judiciary, and electoral system, but the big question remains whether these changes will be fully realised before or after the elections.

Proposals for further reforms, including a suggestion that political parties be involved in the process and that the interim government be granted full powers, have emerged from both inside and outside of the administration.

Economically, the legacy of the outgoing government’s policies has left significant challenges, and how much of this can be rectified in 2025 is a matter of concern.

Experts point to issues such as inflation, reserves, and the need to boost remittances as key factors in stabilising the economy.

Some also argue that more reforms will be necessary to improve the economic situation.

Addressing inflation, experts have called for stabilising fuel prices and increasing investment in agriculture to alleviate some of the economic pressure.

A CHANGING POLITICAL REALITY IN BANGLADESH

Uncertainty persists over the Awami League's participation in the upcoming elections, the party that led Bangladesh to independence in 1971 and governed the nation for over fifteen years.

Sheikh Hasina has sought refuge in India, while most of the party's leaders are either in hiding or in prison.

Leaders of the Anti-discrimination Student Movement have called for the exclusion of the country’s oldest political party from the election process.

The party, which formed a tribunal to prosecute those involved in war crimes during the 1971 Liberation War, now finds its senior leaders facing similar charges in the courts.

Allegations of crimes against humanity have been levelled against Hasina, and Awami League’s student wing Bangladesh Chhatra League’s political activities have been banned.

Several other parties that were part of the previous government, including the Jatiya Party, now find themselves in a similar situation, accused of being accomplices of the Awami League.

BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia has been released from prison, and although she has been acquitted in several cases, her son Tarique Rahman has yet to return to the country.

In the current political landscape, new parties are emerging, fuelled by the Anti-discrimination Student Movement, while Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, the party that opposed Bangladesh's independence and was banned shortly after the country defeated Pakistan in the 1971 Liberation War, stands in a “favourable” position following the fall of the Awami League administration.

Their student wing Islami Chhatra Shibir has also become openly active in educational institutions.

Amid these developments, the future of the country's politics remains uncertain.

Mujahidul Islam Selim, former president of the Communist Party of Bangladesh, or CPB, puts it: "Sometimes it seems like better times are ahead, but other times it feels like very difficult times are waiting."

Some, however, view the changed political context as “old wine in new bottles.”

Bobi Biswas, a student at Dhaka University, told bdnews24.com: “In the old political equations, parties were always throwing mud at each other. After the upheaval, this behaviour has decreased, but some organisations still seem to think that the public should unquestioningly favour those who were involved in the anti-government movement.”

He added, “This is a manifestation of Awami fascism. The ‘new politics’ they talk about is, in fact, 'old wine in new bottles.'”

However, Mir Arshadul Haque, a central member of the National Citizens' Committee, is optimistic about the new year.

He said, “It will no longer be easy to mislead the people. Citizens now keep track of political parties not only through mainstream media but also on social media. In this scenario, continuing old-fashioned politics will be challenging.”

He continued, “In the new year, there will be high expectations from the youth. The interest in new, smaller, yet progressive political parties will increase. If the larger parties do not break free from their old patterns, they could end up in a position similar to that of the Awami League.”

As political analysts speculate on the future, they suggest that BNP and its allies will continue to pressure the interim government for a clear election date.

Many politically aware citizens are against rushing into elections.

Poet and thinker Farhad Mazhar believes, “Arrangements should be made to grant full powers to Professor Yunus. This means the interim government should not be an advisory body but a fully empowered one. Political parties must be included in this process, so we can move past the interim phase. I am not in favour of elections right now.”

Mir Arshadul remains hopeful about the interim government's future, saying: "The changes of 2024 will continue into 2025, and the momentum of this transformation will persist. Bangladesh will improve in every aspect, and this is the decision of the people here."

WHEN WILL THE ELECTION BE HELD?

The question of when Bangladesh's next election will take place is expected to dominate political discourse in the new year, according to analysts.

While the interim government has indicated a possible timeframe, it has yet to confirm a specific date.

In a speech to the nation on Dec 16, the chief advisor said: "If, and I repeat, if, a political consensus allows us to make minor adjustments and prepare an accurate voter list, elections may be possible by the end of 2025. However, if we add the anticipated reforms based on recommendations from the Election Commission and broader national consensus, it could require at least six more months. Broadly speaking, the elections could take place between late 2025 and the first half of 2026."

Despite this statement, the BNP and Jamaat remain sceptical.

On Dec 21, Jamaat leader Syed Abdullah Mohammad Taher said: "The next parliamentary election must be held by 2025, and all reforms must be completed within this timeframe."

Meanwhile, the BNP has urged the public to join a fresh wave of protests to demand elections.

On Dec 23, while addressing party workers in Thakurgaon, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir said: "Just as you united and took to the streets on Aug 5, you must do so again.

"Take to the streets to reclaim your rights – the right to vote, the right to food, the right to justice, and the right to social dignity."

Analysts believe the election date will hinge on such political pressures.

Mujahidul Islam said, "If there’s public pressure, the timeline will hold; if not, it won’t. There’s a saying that even if you straighten a dog's tail by putting it in a pipe, it remains crooked. This societal structure is such that without public pressure, it will stay crooked."

He also questioned the interim government’s claim of needing a “reasonable” amount of time for reforms, saying: "They talk about needing a reasonable timeframe, but it shouldn’t take this long. People aren’t naive; some believe they want extra time to create a 'King’s Party.'

"On the other hand, BNP loyalists think that the way the Awami League conducted elections, we’ll do the same to seize power – there’s no need to give extra time."

REFORMS BEFORE OR AFTER ELECTIONS?

The interim government is working on significant reforms within the state structure, with the plan to hold national elections after completing these reforms.

However, many argue that substantial reforms should be implemented by an elected government.

In his address to the nation after taking office, the chief advisor announced the formation of six reform commissions. Subsequently, five more commissions were formed.

The six commissions initially formed are expected to submit their reports by early January.

These include the Election System Reform Commission, Police Administration Reform Commission, Judiciary Reform Commission, Anti-Corruption Reform Commission, Public Administration Reform Commission, and the Constitution Reform Commission.

The five additional commissions were announced through a gazette notification on Oct 3, while the Constitution Reform Commission’s gazette was issued on Oct 7.

All of these commissions have been instructed to submit their reports within 90 days.

On Oct 17, the government announced the formation of four more reform commissions, focusing on health, media, labour rights, and women’s issues.

However, it took about a month for these commissions to be fully constituted.

While the parties supporting Yunus have called for time to implement the reforms, they have also demanded early elections.

Researcher and social analyst Abul Quasem Fazlul Huq believes that reform work needs to go beyond just organising an election.

He stresses the need for reform along the lines of overcoming the yearning for an uprising.

He told bdnews24.com: *“We need several reforms. After 53 years of independence, our political parties have not implemented these reforms, which is why they are needed.

“We also need to work on shaping our policies and consciousness, which has not been done over an extended period. We need to think about our education system, economy, and market structure.”

However, due to the lack of substantial political and public support for reforms, former CPB president Mujahidul believes the task will be challenging for the interim government.

He said, “What reforms will the current government make? It is just an interim government. In 2007-2008, the caretaker government lasted for two years, but they couldn’t bring about change. So, during the next government’s term, the country continued as before.”

“I don’t know if this government will succeed. The previous government was at least disciplined, but I don’t see that now.”

Central member of the National Citizen’s Committee Mir Arshadul, said: “National reforms are a slow process, but small and large reforms collectively play a significant role in advancing the country.

“A major reform is needed in the bureaucracy, but whether that will happen remains to be seen. Bangladesh will move forward through reforms, and the people have essentially decided this. We can expect positive outcomes.”

Human rights and development worker Khushi Kabir said: “The reports from the reform commissions should also be accessible to the public. They shouldn’t only be available to a few people and the cabinet.

“Without an elected government, no legal changes can be made. The major changes will only occur when an elected government takes office.”

Regarding the reforms, Farhad Mazhar said: “We can form a reconstruction or reconciliation council by reaching a consensus among the political parties.

“We need to quickly heal the divisions that have developed between us. We should not divide the good people within the Awami League. To do that, we can establish a high-power council that will oversee whether the government is working in line with the public's will.”

ECONOMY: INFLATION AND REFORMS HOLD THE KEY

Reliance on exports and remittances continues to sustain the macroeconomy, but high inflation remains a significant challenge, which the interim government predicts will persist for the first few months of the new year.

Dhaka University’s Development Studies Professor Abu Yusuf observed that enhancing the flow of foreign currency could not only resolve the reserve crisis but also stabilise the macroeconomy.

He told bdnews24.com: “If even a portion of the reform initiatives is implemented, the economy will move towards a structured framework, shifting from disorder to discipline.”

While exports and remittances are still on a positive trajectory, the reserve remains below the required benchmark.

“One encouraging aspect is that, despite the changing scenario, the government has signed agreements worth $8 - 10 billion with donor agencies, which is commendable,” he added.

He expressed optimism that disbursement of these funds could elevate reserves above $25 billion, alleviating the crisis.

The country’s general inflation rate has remained above 9 percent since March, reaching 11.38 percent in November.

Food inflation peaked at 13.80 percent during that month, the second highest in over 13 years.

Prof Yusuf suggested focusing on better market management to control inflation in the new year.

“If unnecessary projects, those not immediately required or inflated in cost, are reduced by at least eight percent, it will be possible to double the number of people under social safety nets or increase benefits for the existing beneficiaries,” he said.

Centre for Policy Dialogue, or CPD, Fellow Towfiqul Islam Khan emphasised the importance of stabilising energy prices in the new year.

He said, “If the government can take firm measures to regulate the prices of fuel, edible oil, and electricity, businesses could recover even with reduced tax exemptions.”

On the broader economic outlook, Prof Yusuf said, “The government is showing signs of relief on several fronts. However, it needs to augment its capability alongside its goodwill.

“If businesses reduce reliance on political factors, they won’t need to overthink investment plans. Their job is to do business, regardless of who is in power.”

American International University Associate Professor Humayra Ferdous advised increasing investment in agriculture to address inflationary pressures.

She warned, “The major challenge ahead will be ensuring food security due to persistent inflation and lack of business confidence. Without boosting production, the problem will worsen. Investment in agriculture is a must, no matter what.”

The International Monetary Fund, or IMF, observed that foreign currency reserves could remain under pressure into early 2025.

It reiterated the need for the government to fully market-align the exchange rate to increase reserves and foreign currency supply.

CPD’s Towfiqul stressed the need for the government to adopt a “coordinated approach” to restore investor confidence and ensure sustained investment.

He told bdnews24.com: “The government inherited a fragile economy. Whether in banking, the capital market, or reserves, there was chaos everywhere.

“That’s why tough reform measures are being undertaken, including reducing tax exemptions to boost revenue collection.”

Towfiqul added, “By 2025, these reforms will bring a structure to the financial sector, with benefits becoming evident in subsequent years. For now, the government must take coordinated measures to rebuild business confidence.”

After the Awami League government’s departure, labour unrest erupted in the ready-made garment sector but has since been brought under control.

Mohammad Hatem, president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association, or BKMEA, believes that apparel exports could increase further if labour unrest remains absent.

The interim government has pledged to address financial crimes, including corruption and money laundering, from the Awami League’s tenure.

National Citizens’ Committee’s Mir Arshadul said: “The plunder of billions through money laundering, crippling the economy, is clear evidence of the previous government’s lack of patriotism. Recovering from this damage will take time, but improvements can be expected by 2025.”

WILL RELIEF RETURN?

In July and August, indiscriminate use of force and loss of life during anti-government movements led to public outrage against police.

Several police establishments, including stations and outposts, were attacked, vandalised, and set on fire.

After the government's fall, police personnel did not report for duty for about a week, citing a “work stoppage”.

Although officers gradually resumed work, law and order has not returned to normal.

Taking advantage of police inactivity, “mob justice” was rampant initially, while the situation is changing, theft and muggings continue unabated.

In this situation, military are deployed on the ground.

Commissioned officers from the three branches of the armed forces have been granted magistracy powers, including arrest and search authority.

Even the interim government is dissatisfied with the state of law and order.

On Nov 19, Home Advisor Md Jahangir Alam Chowdhury said: "Although the country's law and order have 'significantly improved' compared with the period following Aug 5, it has not reached the level the public expects."

Media reports indicate that due to police indifference, incidents of extortion and land grabbing are occurring.

Victims allege that while the extortionists have changed, the extortion continues as before.

Acknowledging that policing activities have not regained momentum even four and a half months after the government change, Inspector General of Police Baharul Alam recently said: "After the 5th of August, police suffered significant losses in property and personnel. With government assistance, we are trying to bring dynamism back to police operations.

"Overcoming the current situation is difficult without the support and assistance of the people. I humbly seek everyone's sincere cooperation."

Amid uncertainty about when the situation will normalise, Bangladesh is entering the new year. BNP Senior Joint Secretary General Ruhul Kabir Rizvi commented that due to administrative uncoordinated efforts, “theft-robbery-muggings” have increased nationwide.

At an event on Dec 23, he said: "It's been four, four and a half months; why would muggings increase? Nine people have killed in Dhaka by muggers' knives."

Expressing hope that “everything will come under control” in the new year, Khushi Kabir said: "I hope that alongside the prices of daily essentials, the country's security system will also come under control.

“However, the current government’s reckless actions—arresting one person, arresting another, with each minister saying something different—must stop. The dreams of a country that won its independence through war should remain alive.”

[Writing in English by Arshi Fatiha Quazi]