Khaleda’s London trip sparks speculation - when is Tarique coming home?

The BNP chairperson departs for medical treatment, sparking discussions on her elder son Tarique's return among party leaders and supporters

Khaleda Zia's journey to London has ignited a flurry of conversation, with two burning questions simmering in tea stalls and bubbling up in political discussions this winter. From regular citizens to BNP leaders at all levels, everyone seems to be reflecting on these same crucial queries.

Since the fall of the Awami League government, many BNP activists have been eagerly awaiting the return of their exiled leader Tarique Rahman.

However, they have yet to receive an answer about when the acting BNP chairman will return to the country.

Sheikh Hasina, who ruled the country with an iron grip for 15 years, is now in India after being ousted in a public uprising.

BNP Chairperson Khaleda, the three-time former prime minister jailed on corruption charges during Hasina's tenure, has finally been fully released and left for London for medical treatment on Tuesday.

This leads to the second question. Speculations on social media suggest that the long-discussed “Minus-Two” theory from a decade and a half ago might have come to fruition.

Despite discomfort with the political dynamics, senior BNP leaders are reluctant to equate the current situation with the 1/11 era.

However, they are unable to provide a definitive answer regarding Tarique's return.

On Monday, BNP Standing Committee member Salauddin Ahmed faced questions from journalists about Tarique's return upon his arrival from London.

In response, he said: “BNP’s acting chairman Tarique Rahman will definitely return to the country. However, we have yet to create a suitable environment for his return. It will take some time.”

Tarique, like his mother Khaleda, was arrested during the 2007-08 military-backed caretaker government. After his release, he moved to London with his family and has not returned since.

On Feb 8, 2018, the day Khaleda was sentenced and sent to prison in the Zia Orphanage Trust case, Tarique was appointed the acting chairman of BNP in a meeting of the party's Standing Committee.

For the past seven years, he has been leading the party via video calls from London, while senior leaders, including Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, have managed the party on the ground.

In 2000, the Awami League government temporarily released Khaleda on executive orders.

However, due to two conditions, she lived a life confined to her home and the hospital, without participating in any political activities.

After the change of power on Aug 5, President Mohammed Shahabuddin granted a full pardon to Khaleda, freeing her entirely.

But at 79 years old, suffering from various ailments, she has not participated in any political programmes.

Political analysts see little chance of her resuming active politics anytime soon.

Her family was repeatedly denied permission to take her abroad for treatment during the Awami League's tenure.

The change in power removed this obstacle, but questions remain as to why it took five months for her to travel abroad for treatment.

On the night of Jan 2, army chief Gen Waker-uz-Zaman visited Khaleda at her residence in Gulshan. He stayed there for more than half an hour.

Apart from inquiring about her health, neither BNP nor the Army Headquarters have disclosed what else was discussed in that meeting.

Some speculate that the army chief might have been there to assure Khaleda of her return after treatment abroad.

BNP ACTIVISTS IN ANTICIPATION

After Tarique moved to London in 2008, he was sentenced in five cases during the Awami League tenure and faced over a hundred more cases.

In the eyes of the court, he became a fugitive, with even his statements and speeches banned from broadcast.

As his passport expired, Tarique had to seek political asylum in the UK.

Despite the passing of his younger brother Arafat Rahman Coco and his mother's imprisonment, Tarique did not return to the country.

The uprising of students and citizens that led to Hasina fleeing to India on Aug 5 brought hope to grassroots BNP workers.

They started believing that Tarique might finally return to the country.

Leaders began saying that Tarique would soon return "as a hero."

However, that discussion soon waned, with leaders later saying that their acting chairman would return after the withdrawal of the cases against him.

Now that the party's chairperson Khaleda has also gone to London to be with her son, many senior BNP leaders are saying that Tarique’s return will be possible after the announcement of the election roadmap.

According to them, although Tarique is in London, he is constantly managing and supervising the party.

Given the country's current "political environment and condition," his return is not seen as urgent right now.

Although BNP leaders are demanding the announcement of an election roadmap, the government has not yet engaged in such discussions.

Instead, several parties are supporting the idea of "reforms before elections."

Even if the plan suggested by the chief advisor is followed, it may take another one to one and a half years for elections to take place.

There is also disagreement between BNP and other parties regarding the election process.

Various parties, including Jamaat-e-Islami, have been advocating for proportional representation, whereas BNP's stance is entirely opposite.

Given the overall political scenario and Tarique's potential return, BNP activists remain somewhat in a haze.

People are also questioning the direction of the country's politics and seeking clarity.

Rezaul Karim Shawon, a student of the chemistry department at Jahangirnagar University, told bdnews24.com: “Tarique Rahman is an icon for BNP's youth. From 8000 miles away, he has organised the party and was a key figure behind the revolution that led to the fall of the fascist Sheikh Hasina government.

"But now I am quite worried when I see the political situation of the country. Khaleda Zia, the invigorating force of BNP, is also gone. She has gone to London for treatment. I can't figure out how the party will gain strength now.”

Nurul Haque Mehedi, a Jatiyatabadi Chhatra Dal activist from Mirpur Bangla College, said: “The interim government is delaying with their talk of reforms, making it hard to predict when the election will happen. If the political field isn’t open, how will the environment improve? The accomplices of the autocrats are still conspiring to thwart the revolution.

"No matter what others say, Tarique Rahman is BNP’s leader. But under the current circumstances, his return isn't happening… and that’s expected. There's no need for extensive discussion on this.”

Akhlaqur Rahman, who works at an insurance company, is also uncertain about the direction of the country's politics.

"There are 6 million cases against opposition leaders and activists. A few months ago, BNP and other opposition parties urged the interim government to arrange for the withdrawal of all cases, but there's been little progress. The government keeps saying, 'it will be done’.

"Moreover, you’ll notice that even for prominent leaders, only a handful of cases have been dismissed or withdrawn. What does that indicate? Something is amiss."

BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul has been trying to reassure his leaders and activists.

However, he has also been unable to provide a possible timeline for Tarique's return.

He told bdnews24.com: “You know that the cases against BNP’s Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman are politically motivated and false. After resolving these cases, he will definitely return. There’s nothing to worry about.

"Tariq Rahman is carrying the spirit of this country and its people. He is carrying the flag of the ideals of the nation's nationalist leader, the martyred president Ziaur Rahman, and the uncompromising leader of democracy, Begum Khaleda Zia. The people are waiting for him and will continue to do so."

MINUS TWO THEORY?

Following the end of the BNP-Jamaat alliance government, political turmoil over the caretaker government led to the Awami League and its allies announcing a boycott of the elections, while violence and conflict pushed the country to the brink. A military-controlled caretaker government, led by Fakhruddin Ahmed, took power, and a state of emergency was declared.

During the murky political landscape of 2007, talks began about launching a “new era” of politics through “reform,” which aimed to remove the top leadership of the two major political parties.

This so-called plan to exile Khaleda and Hasina from Bangladesh's politics became known as the Minus Two Theory in the political arena.

At the time, both leaders were arrested on corruption charges.

After several months, Hasina was released and went abroad for treatment, though there were attempts to block her return.

After her release, Khaleda was also pressured to leave the country, though she did not comply.

However, her son Tarique went abroad after his release and settled in London with his family.

In the 2008 elections, the Awami League won and came to power, remaining in power through three subsequent disputed elections.

For BNP leaders and supporters, it was a period of intense hardship.

Following the government’s fall in an uprising, a similar tough period has now descended upon the Awami League’s leaders and supporters.

Although BNP faces fewer challenges now, the fears of “political marginalisation” and the revival of the Minus Two Theory are resurfacing among its leaders.

Sahabuddin Chowdhury, a student of political science at Abu Jar Gifari College in Shantinagar, said: "The political sky is unclear. There seems to be a strange feeling with black clouds and fog. Is the Minus Two Theory starting again? Sheikh Hasina is absent, and Khaleda Zia is also absent."

Prof Md Rafiqul Islam from the Department of Peace and Conflict Studies at Dhaka University, however, does not see such concerns.

He told bdnews24.com, since a large portion of the population supports the two major political parties, and both leaders are currently abroad, it is not unusual for the idea of Minus Two Theory to reappear in the current political climate.

"But in January 2007, when the Minus Two Theory was being implemented by the Moeen Uddin-Fakhruddin government, most of the leaders and supporters of the two parties were in jail. Now, however, most of BNP’s leaders and activists are free and politically active. Therefore, I do not see any possibility of implementing the Minus Two Theory or moving in that direction at this moment."

The student-led movement that led the fall of the Awami League administration aims to break Bangladesh free from the old cycle of politics. However, they are not ready to see the absence of both leaders as a Minus Two scenario.

Abdul Kader, one of the coordinators of the movement who declared the nine-point charter of demand, told bdnews24.com: "The situation of 2007 and the current one are not the same. At that time, both political parties and their leaders were in the country. They did not flee due to any crime like ‘genocide’.

“There has been no such situation now where their political parties will be sidelined. Hasina ‘is involved in genocide’, and Khaleda is ill. Over the years, she has repeatedly requested, and our civil society has advocated for, her treatment abroad. She was denied permission at that time. Now, when the situation has improved, BNP is taking her abroad for medical treatment."

Kader said, "From our side, we want Hasina to be brought back and tried in the country, while Khaleda should recover and return to the country."

BNP Standing Committee member Goyeshwar Chandra Roy believes that the theory of political marginalisation has never been accepted by the people of the country.

He told bdnews24.com, "A party that is closely tied to the people, the land, and the masses cannot be erased or destroyed through any theory. The government of 1/11 and the fascist government of Sheikh Hasina over the past 15 years tried to do that but failed. BNP remains as BNP in the hearts of the people."

TARIQUE'S CASES

Following the political change on Jan 11, 2007, Tarique was arrested from his residence on Shaheed Moinul Road in Dhaka, and 17 cases were filed against him in the first round. All these were corruption-related charges.

Subsequent cases filed during the Awami League's tenure included charges of treason, money laundering, and defamation.

He was convicted in five of these cases, which were concluded while he was declared a fugitive.

One of these was the Aug 21 grenade attack case, in which he was sentenced to life imprisonment.

Despite not being given the opportunity to appeal, the High Court later acquitted him and all the convicted defendants on December 2024.

Tarique has also been acquitted in several other cases in various courts.

However, 15 cases related to tax evasion and extortion are currently suspended in higher courts, and many more cases remain pending.

The exact number of cases filed against him across different police stations and courts is not even clear to his legal team.

Tarique's lawyer Barrister Kaiser Kamal, said: "Tarique Rahman is a very important figure in Bangladesh's politics. He is carrying the political banner for the people and the land of Bangladesh. He will take necessary steps regarding his return to the country at the right time."

However, some BNP-supporting lawyers believe that returning to the country before all cases are withdrawn might not be “saf” for Tarique.

Lawyer Aminur Rahman said: "There is an interim government in place, but the situation cannot be considered fully normal. There are remnants of fallen authoritarian regimes lurking everywhere within the administration. In such a situation, it might not be wise for Tarique Rahman to return before the false and baseless cases are withdrawn."

Rokib Uddin, a member of the BNP in Sweden, echoed similar sentiments, saying: "The interim government has not been able to fix the administration yet, and police are not fully active. Our leader will definitely return, but only after the environment improves."

"We expatriates do not want Tarique Rahman to face any peril by returning to the country with risk factors present. We must remember that he is now the sole beacon for the BNP," Rokib added.

[Writing in English by Arshi Fatiha Quazi]