Home
+
Published : 04 May 2020, 06:21 AM
(The conversation)
Gail Collins: Bret, do you listen to Andrew Cuomo's daily pandemic press conferences?
Bret Stephens: Unmissable.
Gail: Originally, my favourite part was when he ripped into Donald Trump. But then he turned his righteous wrath on Mitch McConnell, and I must admit I'm loving that even more.
Have you been following the fight? It peaked when McConnell turned his thumbs down on federal aid to places like New York — what his office called "blue-state bailouts." He suggested that if virus-wracked states and cities were overwhelmed by health care costs plus lost tax revenue, they could just declare bankruptcy.
Cuomo's response was definitely more watchable than the 5,000-round football draft.
Bret: Regarding Mitch, I'm fond of that famous French quotation: "It is worse than a crime, it is a mistake." The idea of a state going into bankruptcy to resolve its pension liabilities or some other fiscal problem isn't necessarily crazy. Bankruptcy is an orderly, rational, sometimes necessary process.
Gail: Not when the party demanding fiscal austerity is the guy who sops up all the money. Cannot tell you how many charts I've exchanged with folks showing how much New York contributes to the federal government and how much Kentucky drains away.
Bret: Right. And my larger point is that it's crazy of McConnell to urge bankruptcy in the midst of a national crisis. It makes Republicans look spiteful, out of touch and ideologically obsessed. It plays straight into the hands of every Democrat running for office. And of course it plays to Joe Biden's strengths, as the guy who feels people's pain because he's had so much pain in his own life.
Gail: Definitely.
Bret: Come to think of it, maybe McConnell is secretly trying to get Biden elected. I would be, too, watching Donald Trump's performance at his press conference last week. Have you, yourself, considered imbibing any disinfectants lately?
Gail: I expected a lot of terrible things when Trump was elected, but I do not believe I could have envisioned his pandemic performance. Especially the look on the faces of the medical experts when he spun his theories about the curative power of ultraviolet rays.
Bret: There ought to be a whole new Oscar category for this: "Best Attempt to Keep a Straight Face."
Gail: And about Biden — I think his all-time best Twitter came last week when he wrote: "I can't believe I have to say this, but please don't drink bleach."
Bret: Well, he could have said, "You first, Mr. President."
Gail: Good point.
Bret: Actually, I'm somewhat glad Trump said it — provided, of course, that nobody takes his advice. Somehow the remark crystallised the clownish, ignorant, toxic essence of the man and his presidency. I suspect it will also come to haunt him politically, in the way that Richard Nixon's "I am not a crook" line did.
Gail: "Let them drink bleach."
Bret: A century ago, H.L. Mencken wrote a famous column for The Baltimore Sun that concluded with the prophetic words, "On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron." I think it's safe to say the prophecy has been fulfilled.
Gail: Don't think I'd buy into this as an argument against populism. But if Mencken was just looking toward a future presidential-moron era, he certainly had his crystal ball on full power.
So, how are you doing, shut-down-wise? I know you're not a fan. Are you rooting for the governors who are opening up their states?
Bret: Well, I'm rooting for things to go as well as possible. The lockdowns were absolutely necessary at the start of the crisis, to slow the spread of the virus, ease the strain on the health system, get more people tested and give us time to gain a better understanding of the disease. They remain necessary in New York City and the surrounding counties, because we have such a concentration of cases and density of people. There's just no way we can even think of returning to normal if "normal" means packed commuter trains and subways and concert halls and office buildings and so on. I doubt New York will return to being its old self until we have a vaccine or more effective therapies.
Gail: Yeah, until then the best we can hope for is sneaking back to semi-normal, with theater audiences wearing face masks and restaurants — poor restaurants — spacing out their tables.
Bret: But most of America is very different from New York: population densities are far lower, fewer people live in high rises or use public transportation, and social distancing etiquette is easier to observe when you aren't being shoved into a subway car by the guy behind you. For this America, I think reopening is essential, even if it also means accepting that they may see an increase in COVID-19 cases, and therefore in COVID-19 fatalities.
Gail: You're right that the rest of the country doesn't live the way we do. But I don't think we can afford the kind of chaotic resumption we'll get if every state is on a different plan.
Bret: Definitely not, but if we don't start reopening in an orderly way now we'll be forced to reopen in a disorderly way later, as financially desperate people start breaking the rules. My biggest fear is that an extended lockdown leads to another Great Depression that will exact its own horrific toll, not just in lives but also in human health.
I know this view isn't shared by many of our readers. What am I missing?
Gail: Did you listen to Cuomo describing his plan for return-to-normal? All New York keeps the shutdown until May 15. Then he wants to proceed in phases, depending on basic factors like the infection rate and the availability of tests.
Bret: That makes sense up to a point. But I don't understand why upstaters should need to wait until May 15. Counties north of Rockland and Westchester may as well be a different state with respect to the disease. There's no reason they shouldn't be able to get back to work sooner, provided they accept sensible restrictions on social distancing like avoiding large gatherings, keeping 6 feet apart wherever possible, and wearing face masks and gloves in public.
Gail: Nobody wants to stay locked down. But I can't believe we can just … sort of declare victory. I'm afraid once we return to planes, gyms, schools and restaurants, the social distancing will fade away very fast. The federal government's not giving us any real guidance. In fact, Trump seems to keep changing the advice he's giving to governors about whether or not they have the right to just reopen for business.
Bret: Including to the consternation of Republicans like Brian Kemp, the Georgia governor who was scolded by Trump for doing just what Trump told him to do.
Gail: So we need a genuine federal plan that includes a generous package of assistance for the states and cities that have been hardest hit. Unless, of course, Mitch McConnell would prefer to just return all the money Kentucky gets from New Yorkers every year.
Bret: One of the reasons I think it's important for states that can get back to semi-normal to do so quickly is so that we can focus resources on the people and places that need it most. New York City needs a lot more support than, say, San Diego. The elderly or those with pre-existing conditions need more help than younger, healthier people. One smart step, suggested by Robert S. Kaplan of Harvard Business School and the economist Mickey D. Levy, is to let young people go back to work, at least those who feel they won't be jeopardising the health of more vulnerable people at home. Some of them will no doubt get the disease, but that isn't entirely a bad thing assuming it helps gradually build herd immunity for the population at large.
Gail: The experts aren't even sure that having the disease builds up immunity, right? Plus a system in which your ability to do your job is determined by age would be tough on older workers who are competing for employment.
Bret: Everyone wants a perfect way out of this crisis. There isn't one. Every choice is fraught, every choice is uncertain and some choices that make sense in one place won't make sense in another. We're just going to have to find our way — and try not to mainline bleach along the way.
©2020 The New York Times Company
