With Japan's total exports, dominated by cars and machinery, standing at close to 100 trillion yen, impact from China's move is negligible
Published : 25 Aug 2023, 02:35 PM
China may be Japan's topseafoodexport market but marine products make up lessthan1% of Tokyo's global trade, which is dominated by cars, so that Beijing'sseafoodbanon its neighbour ismoreof apoliticalgesture, analysts say.
Chinahassaid Thursday'sbanonseafoodimports from Japan was prompted by concerns about the "risk of radioactive contamination" after itstartedreleasing treated radioactive water from the wrecked Fukushima nuclear plant into the sea.
"The Fukushima water release is mostly ofpoliticaland environmental significance," said Stefan Angrick, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics.
"Economically, the ramifications of a potentialbanonJapanesefood shipments are minimal."
Last year Japan exportedseafoodworth 87.1 billion yen ($600 million), or a fifth of its total, to top trading partner China, while Hong Kong, Japan's No.2seafoodmarket after mainland China, accounted for another 75.5 billion.
The Asian financial hub of Hong Kong and the gambling centre of Macau, both Chinese-ruled, arebanning imports from 10Japaneseregions.
With Japan's total exports, dominated by cars andmachinery, standing at close to 100 trillion yen, impact fromChina'smove is negligible, analysts say.
The neighbours have complex ties rooted in history and the question of a regional balance of power.
Just last week Beijing criticised anagreementamong the United States, South Korea and Japan to strengthen military andeconomicties.
This week'sban"seems part of the features of China-Japan rivalry, which is of course entangled with China-US competition, given Tokyo's close alliance relationship with Washington," said Chong Ja Ian of the National University of Singapore, who analyses how major power competition affects the domestic economies of third countries.
Seafoodexports to China and Hong Kong accounted for just 0.17% of Japan's total exports last year, said Takahide Kiuchi, an economist with the Nomura Research Institute.
"Even if the import suspension continues for one year, the effect of depressing Japan's gross domestic product is only 0.03%."
Since the vast majority of Japan's fish catch is consumed at home, topseafoodproducers Maruha Nichiroand Nissui, expect limited impact from theban, their spokespersons said.
The news hardly affected their shares, with Maruha Nichiro closing up 0.12% and Nissui adding 0.75%, moderately underperforming a rise of 0.87% in the benchmarkNikkei index.
NEITHER FOR CHINA
China'scustoms data shows it is sourcing all its bluefin tuna, one of the most expensive fish globally, from Japan, while scallops make up the largest import by volume.
Yet the 156,000 metric tons ofseafoodJapan supplied to China last year contribute lessthan4% of the latter'sseafoodimports of $18.8 billion, the data shows, with Ecuador, India and Russia being the largest suppliers.
"It's not going to make many ripples in theseafoodsector," said Gorjan Nikolik, senior globalseafoodspecialist at Dutchbank Rabobank, referring to theban. "Japan is not a relevant exporter."
Fukushima plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Co (Tepco) hasvowed to compensate domestic businesses for damage from a fall in exports because of theban.
About 82% ofJapanesecompanies expect China to stay at least as important to their business in future as it is now, a corporate survey showed this month.
Mainland China was Japan's biggest export market in 2022, at $145 billion, data from the International Monetary Fund shows.