2012 predictions

Published : 6 Jan 2012, 06:23 PM
Updated : 6 Jan 2012, 06:23 PM

This week has been, once again, a difficult one for me. I wrote this missive from the Emergency Room, during an interminable wait for doctors to see my son, whose leg had swollen with a mountain range of nasty red infections that were so hot you could practically fry an egg on. Just a few days ago, I was sitting in another waiting room with a throat-related emergency of my own.

One of my readers asked me at the end of my last article, "What do you predict for the future Bangladesh?" This was the inspiration for the following article. As I sat with my son, amazed at how unpredictable life can be, I had ample time to contemplate what the future might hold, and how I may be able to answer that reader's question. Would things be better or worse in 2012? I started writing. By the time I had finished, the doctor had a prognosis, and I had 1700 words, far too long for one article. I had to either go way over my word count, or break this article into two separate weeks' worth of predictions. I decided to go with the latter.

Please understand that I am a neophyte. I am a fan, an avid reader of news from Bangladesh, and I am acquiring many friends on that side of the world, but I still have never felt the pulse of your nation firsthand. Still, I hope you all forgive me if I take on my reader's challenge. Thanks for that, R, and let you know how I think each sector will fare in the year to come.

Let's start with the preventable tragedies that happen daily in Bangladesh, the future which is actually in each of our hands, and over which we have the most control:

Traffic accidents

Some sources predict that 3G and Wi-fi hotspots will increase in Bangladesh in 2012. While such developments favour greater access and more freedom on the internet, it also means that Bangladeshi motorists will have more distractions while they drive. I know I have been guilty a time or two of dialling my cellphone while driving.

Now Bangladeshis will be able to surf the internet in increasing numbers while driving. Already in 2012, bdnews24.com has started reported on road fatalities. We can resolve to pull over if we have to call or look at our phone in 2012. Will it happen? Well, will YOU pull over each time you use your cellphone. Let's hope drivers do the same to avoid more tragedies in 2012, but sadly, my prediction based upon new distractions for 2012 is… WORSE THAN 2011.

Democracy

The same technology that could cause chaos on the road will also permit the people greater access to democratic process. Just as the Arab Spring happened with the help of social Networking, the increased use of internet at all levels in Bangladeshi society will increase the dialogue. People will be voicing their opinions and growing restless. As long as people are not tweeting as they drive, the increasing access to technology will circumvent official channels and allow Bangladeshis to discover the uncensored truth. So Democracy will have a good year in 2012… BETTER THAN 2011.

Economy

I have not bought a new shirt in three years, and my clothes are starting to fall apart. I think this is the case with many people here in the US and we'll be looking for ready to wear apparel this year as the US economy grows stronger. Consumers with any level of geopolitical awareness are staying away from Chinese products, and Bangladesh is a good alternative. With a healthy 6% growth in GDP, I would say that Bangladesh's economy will improve over the next year…BETTER Than 2011.

General health

Despite what I've been reading about the unnecessary deaths during cold snaps, so tragic! There is good news here. According to a recent UN report, Bangladesh has made strides in reducing infant mortality, disease control and fighting poverty. "The creeks will rise" is a saying Americans have along the Mississippi, and the floods will come to Bangladesh, bringing the curse of flooding, as well as the blessings of fertile land. I think Bangladesh will be better prepared than ever should the land become flooded. This is also going to be the year that the last case of Polio will be reported in Asia. The population of Bangladesh increases, but this is partly due to falling infant mortality and better access to health care. Not a perfect system by far, but one, that I have read is steadily improving. As far as you all are concerned, please watch your health and stay well. I think a good way to stay well will be to participate in sports in the coming year… BETTER THAN 2011.

Sports

Can you really top 2011? Well, no. But 2012 will be a year for The Asian Beach Games, the Islamic Games, Indo-Bangladesh Bangla Games, and the Summer Olympics, and the South Asian Games. The Indo-Bangladesh games will be hosted in Dhaka. In March, Bangladesh will also host the Asia Cup Cricket tournament.  The really good news is that the international effort to teach Bangladeshi children survival swimming might help lessen the number of children that drown each year. This is part of the legacy program of the London Olympics and I think this program will only gather strength in 2012. I hope to write more about what's going on here in the coming year. So my prediction is that participation in sports will grow in 2012…NOT BETTER, NOT WORSE, just with a different focus.

Education

The year has already not started well. Student protests at Jagannath University belie dissatisfaction with new fees. Last year, stories of corruption and abuse of power. We have had stories of a student's nose being broken by the fist of a teacher, inadequate buildings, and unsafe conditions. The idea that the expansion of technological solutions will help alleviate these problems may be partially correct. But to this outsider's viewpoint, this can only work with proper supervision in the lower grades, and proper supervision seems to be what's lacking. Corruption cannot be allowed in the schools. Let it exist in government, an educated population will weed it out. Let it exist in business, the market may eventually correct. But when it exists in education, the result is ruined potential. I believe that the press can help by exposing corruption, keeping a careful eye on those schools where the most vulnerable and underrepresented groups of people, the poor and the very young need to learn how to read, write and figure in order to lift themselves out of poverty. This is the one area of public life where individuals can make the biggest difference for the nation as a whole.

Hey, Jagannath University, how about waving that fee of TK 5,000 for students willing to teach literacy to a child or adult in need?

PEOPLE WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE THIS YEAR. PROGNOSIS: BETTER

Wow. I'm way over my word count and the doctor has pronounced his prognosis: MRSA, a strain of virus immune to antibiotics. My son is prescribed Sulfur pills and sent home. Today, as I sit to type what I scribbled on a pad in the hospital, he is feeling so much better that he is once again bouncing off the walls and being his usual restless, crazy self.

I will talk about some issues further from our control next week. Meanwhile, I tell myself how blessed I am to have ducked an emergency once again. If only we could take all our crises to an ER to be sorted out with the correct pills in some sterile waiting room. Except, when it comes to society, each of us are the doctors. We are the antibodies, the agents of positive change that can work miracles in a short time to bring about the changes that will bring our children a wonderful world.

As long as we have faith in our own abilities, the prognosis will always be: BETTER.

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Frank Domenico Cipriani writes a weekly column in the Riverside Signal called "You Think What You Think And I'll Think What I Know." He is also the founder and CEO of The Gatherer Institute — a not-for-profit public charity dedicated to promoting respect for the environment and empowering individuals to become self-taught and self-sufficient. His most recent book, "Learning Little Hawk's Way of Storytelling", teaches the native art of oral tradition storytelling.