Published : 26 Aug 2026, 05:29 PM
Updated : 08 Sep 2026, 09:36 AM
There is suddenly a lot of talk in Bangladesh, some in rather excited tone, about the possibility of joining a new military alliance. For the past 55 years, Bangladesh has pursued a strictly “non-aligned” foreign policy, whereby it has steered clear of big power politics and entanglement with military coalitions. But judging by the vibes emanating from Segun Bagicha, that might be about to change.
Such a move would certainly be welcomed by voices on the extreme right-wing of the political spectrum, who see this as an opportunity to outflank India in the process. But whether a military entanglement in the treacherously shifting sands of West Asia would serve Dhaka’s interest, or even the current government’s oft-repeated “Bangladesh First” approach, is open to debate.
Speculation over Bangladesh possibly joining the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement or MJDA, began around Aug 17, when Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman invited Prime Minister Tarique Rahman to visit the Arabian kingdom. Just 10 days earlier, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan had signed the MJDA, signalling a shift away from the decades-old US-centric defence alignment in the region.
The agreement states that an attack on any one of the members will be seen as an attack on all the members, thus setting the scene for a wider conflict should any one of them come under attack. Such high-sounding commitments are easier said than done, and they are often designed as deterrence rather than a blueprint for Armageddon.
For Dhaka, making such a commitment, which could, theoretically, include joining an India-Pakistan war which had nothing to do with Bangladesh, would certainly require a great deal more thinking than has taken place so far.
Ershad’s Saddam Gambit
There is every likelihood that Saudi Arabia may invite Bangladesh to join the MJDA when Tarique arrives in Riyadh later in the year. Or even before that, as part of the pre-visit preparations. Dhaka normally finds it difficult to turn down Saudi requests as the kingdom hosts the largest number of expatriate Bangladeshis in any foreign country. Although most of them do not enjoy immigrant status or rights associated with it, they are nevertheless a crucial source of foreign exchange for Bangladesh.
One may recall, when Iraq invaded and annexed Kuwait in 1990, Saudis sought US help to drive Saddam Hussein’s forces out of the tiny Arab sheikhdom. The US built a coalition and invited Muslim countries in particular to contribute troops.
Bangladeshi president at the time, Hussain Muhammad Ershad, must have been aware that public opinion in the country was strongly against the US and in favour of Saddam. Ershad chose to ignore public opinion and responded to Saudi request by sending Bangladesh Army troops to the Gulf.
Although the troops did not take part in any shooting war, they contributed significantly to post-war security in Kuwait. One could argue, Ershad’s decision in 1990 opened the door to future UN peacekeeping roles for the Bangladesh military.
The big question now is, would a decision to join the MJDA turn out to be as far-sighted as Ershad’s was in 1990? Or, given the wholly different circumstances and variety of interests at play, would such a decision entrap Bangladesh in the quagmire of West Asian power politics, force it to take sides and irretrievably damage its national interest?
India on the Mind
That question needs to be debated, but it appears Bangladeshi commentators, especially those in favour of joining the MJDA, are looking at it from a different angle. Although the alliance has an unmistakably West Asian look, the view from Bangladesh appears to be passing through an “Indian prism.”
Instead of addressing what role Bangladesh could possibly play in a potential Saudi vs Iran, or even a Türkiye vs Israel scenario, much of the talk has swirled around how joining such a coalition could “deter” India. For some in the Islamist camp, opportunity to join hands with two of the Muslim world’s most powerful militaries, Türkiye and Pakistan, seems too good to pass over.
India is unlikely to view a Saudi-Pakistan alliance with alarm, as Islamabad’s military has long served as Arab kings’ mercenaries. The Arab kings have smaller populations, but lots of money. Pakistan has lots of population, but no money. Islamabad has always looked west, towards the Gulf and beyond, to find a role for itself in the world.
The addition of Türkiye to make up the trio may have raised a few eyebrows in Delhi, but here again, India is unlikely to see this alliance as a direct threat to its security.
But Bangladesh joining the alliance could make India somewhat uncomfortable, as this would formalise a Dhaka-Islamabad military alliance (via the MJDA detour), forcing Delhi to think of a two-front scenario (or three, if China is added to the mix, making it a semi-encirclement.)
Whence the Threat?
The big question, how would the MJDA serve Bangladesh’s interest, appears to be receiving very little attention. The recently-elevated state minister for foreign affairs, Humaiun Kobir in a press conference said they were viewing the prospect “positively,” without elaborating on what was “positive” about it.
Jettisoning the traditional non-alignment in foreign and defence policy, in favour of an alliance that could embroil Bangladesh in conflicts Dhaka cannot influence let alone control, would be a very big deal indeed.
The alliance has given something specific to each of its three founding members. The alliance allows Ankara to consolidate its control over northern Syria, with a nod from the most important Arab capital, Riyadh. The alliance gives Saudi Arabia an enhanced sense of security, in terms of dealing with perceived and real threats from Iran and Yemen. Arab kings have always relied on foreign militaries to provide them with security.
There have been questions, often asked loudly, about the nature of the MJDA or what kind of threat, from which direction, the alliance was designed to deter. Initial suspicion was this was a Saudi enterprise, designed to deter Iran in the east, and the Houthis of Yemen in the south. Iranians had initially warned Saudis that such alliances would not guarantee them security, anymore than Riyadh’s alliance with the United States could deliver safety.
But with the passing of days, there has been more talk about expanding the alliance to include Egypt. That seems to have subsided and replaced by even more intriguing proposals. There are reports, confirmed by the Iranians, that Tehran has been invited to join the MJDA. In addition, there are talks about Iraq and Syria also joining.
The Kurds in the Mix
Whether such an expansion would actually take place or not, remains doubtful. But if it were to happen, then the MJDA would take on a decidedly inward-looking posture. Four of these countries share a very similar threat to internal security and territorial integrity: the Kurds.
Thanks to western economic support and security backing, Iraq’s Kurds have enjoyed full autonomy for decades in the country’s northern region, bordering Türkiye and Iran; Kurdish separatists in both Türkiye and Iran enjoy sanctuary in Iraqi Kurdistan; the Kurds in Syria used to control over the country’s oil-rich region, thanks to support from the US and Israel, but the change of government in Damascus has reduced that external support and shrunk their control to some pockets.
If Iran, Iraq and Syria were to join the alliance, then Türkiye would expect them to ensure their territory is not used to support Kurdish separatism in any part of the region. Just as Saudi Arabia would expect the MJDA to provide backing to the kingdom in case of attacks from the Houthis in Yemen, so Türkiye would view the alliance as a bulwark against territorial disintegration. Where would Bangladesh fit into this scenario? Nowhere in particular, frankly.
While the government in Dhaka is sounding upbeat about joining, branding the invitation as a success for Tarique’s “leadership,” voices challenging the narrative are getting more space. The point is, this is not an ordinary alliance among Muslim-majority nations designed to protect the religious-national interests of Muslims. This alliance is among nations which are deep in multifaceted geo-political confrontations in their region. Alliances and allegiance here can shift just as easily as agreements are signed.
Not so long ago, Saudis and the UAE jointly imposed a blockade on Qatar. Türkiye came to Qatar’s aid, sending a detachment of its army to deter the Saudis. Today, the Saudis and the UAE are at logger-heads, while Ankara has signed an alliance with Riyadh.
For Bangladesh, it is important to maintain the best of relations with all nations in the Gulf and beyond, which could become increasingly complicated, if not impossible if Dhaka were to join the Makkah Agreement.
[Sabir Mustafa is a journalist and podcaster]
