Published : 23 Sep 2026, 09:25 PM
Updated : 23 Sep 2026, 09:25 PM
More than 450,000 people could die from additional heat linked to a powerful El Niño between September and February 2027, according to a new report by climate scientists.
The estimate covers heat-related deaths and excludes additional fatalities that could result from droughts, wildfires and flooding associated with El Niño, The Guardian reported.
The report projects 451,000 additional deaths, with tropical countries including Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India and Brazil expected to be among the hardest hit. The US could record about 3,500 additional heat deaths.
The current El Niño has already exceeded the highest temperature previously recorded for the phenomenon, months before its expected peak. Scientists have described its intensity as “mind-blowing” and “Godzilla-level”, according to The Guardian.
The projections cover September to February 2027, the period for which temperature forecasts are currently available. Researchers expect elevated heat-related deaths to continue into June or July.
The study examined the monthly relationship between temperature and heat deaths across 24,378 regions, using average deaths from 1996 to 2025 as a baseline. Researchers then combined those figures with forecasts for additional warming from El Niño.
“The estimate of 451,000 people is such a large number that it can be numbing, but it is made up of parents and children, grandparents and neighbours,” said Prof Michael Greenstone of the Climate Impact Lab and the University of Chicago, who co-authored the report.
Researchers said measures including better heat forecasts, cooling centres, extra medical staff during extreme heat and protections for outdoor workers could help reduce the toll.
El Niño is natural, but its effects are intensified by a warmer climate. Dr Tamma Carleton said emergency measures could save lives now, while long-term planning is needed as extreme heat becomes more common, The Guardian has said.
The World Food Programme has also warned that El Niño could push about 50 million people into acute hunger and raise food prices.
The report has not yet undergone peer review, but its authors said they released the findings because of the urgency of the projected risks.
