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Published : 09 Jul 2026, 03:15 PM
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has forecast that Bangladesh's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 4.5 percent in the 2026–27 fiscal year, which began in July.
The Manila-based development institution also said that, according to its final estimate, Bangladesh's GDP growth for the 2025–26 fiscal year, which ended on Jun 30, is likely to be 3.7 percent.
The forecast was published on Thursday in the ADB's Asian Development Outlook (ADO) report.
The report analyses the latest economic conditions across Asian countries, including key indicators for Bangladesh such as imports, exports, remittance inflows, investment, and overall economic performance.
The BNP-led government has set a GDP growth target of 6.5 percent for the 2026–27 fiscal year, which is 2 percentage points higher than the ADB's projection.
On Jun 10, the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) released its provisional GDP estimates for the 2025–26 fiscal year, stating that the country's economy grew by 4.14 percent compared with the previous fiscal year (2024–25).
In the 2025–26 national budget, the interim government had set a GDP growth target of 5.5 percent for the fiscal year.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) publishes its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) every April. It subsequently releases three update reports during the year to reflect changes in the global economic outlook. The first update is issued in July, followed by another in September, and the final update in December.
The July 2026 update was released on Thursday. These three reports are considered supplementary updates to the main April edition.
In its Asian Development Outlook (April 2026 edition), published on Apr 11, the ADB had projected that Bangladesh's economy would grow by 4.7 percent in the 2026–27 fiscal year. In the latest July update, however, the forecast has been revised downward to 4.5 percent.
According to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2026 report, the downward revision reflects weaker export performance, subdued private investment, high energy prices, persistent inflationary pressures, and a more adverse external environment.
In its April 2026 edition, the ADB had also forecast 4.0 percent GDP growth for the 2025–26 fiscal year, which has now been revised to 3.7 percent in the July update.
“Bangladesh’s economy continues to show resilience amid a difficult global and domestic environment, supported by strong remittance inflows and steady services activity,” said Akira Matsunaga, officer-in-charge for ADB’s Bangladesh Resident Mission.
“Sustained reforms to strengthen macroeconomic stability, improve the investment climate, enhance financial sector governance, and address energy and infrastructure constraints will be critical to supporting a stronger and more inclusive recovery. These reforms will also be important to crowd in private investment, create quality jobs, and strengthen economic resilience.”
The report also said that downside risks to the outlook remain significant. A further escalation of the West Asia conflict could raise energy and shipping costs, intensify external pressures, weaken growth through higher inflation, and soften remittance inflows. Higher global oil prices could widen the import bill and increase fiscal pressures through higher energy-related subsidy requirements. Higher tariffs, broader trade restrictions, or weaker growth in major economies could further depress export demand and prolong weakness in manufacturing activity.
Persistent exchange rate pressures, tight external financing conditions, and climate-related shocks also remain important risks.
The ousted government of Sheikh Hasina had set a target of achieving 6.75 percent GDP growth for the 2024-25 fiscal year. Amid changing circumstances, the interim government revised this target downward to 5.25 percent. Ultimately, a growth rate of 3.49 percent was achieved.
Bangladesh's GDP growth in the 2023-24 fiscal year stood at 4.22 percent.
Inflation
In the ADB report, inflation is projected to remain elevated at 9 percent in FY2026, unchanged from the April forecast. Recent adjustments to domestic petroleum, gas, and electricity prices are expected to continue passing through to transport, utilities, and other consumer prices. Inflation is forecast to moderate to 8.8 percent in FY2027, higher than the 8.5 percent projected in April, as second-round effects from higher energy and transport costs, exchange-rate pass-through, and persistent food and services inflation are likely to slow the pace of disinflation.
Although inflation eased slightly in June compared with the previous month, it remained above 9 percent. On an annual average basis, inflation declined modestly to 8.68 percent by the end of the fiscal year.
On Jul 6, the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) released its latest inflation data. The figures showed that point-to-point (year-on-year) inflation stood at 9.16 percent in June, the final month of the 2025–26 fiscal year, down from 9.42 percent in May.
The 2025–26 fiscal year ended with an average inflation rate of 8.68 percent.
