China's industrial profit growth quickens even as Iran war heightens risks

Experts say the impact of the Middle East conflict is yet to fully reflect in data

Buildings of various companies and industrial parks, in Dongguan, Guangdong province, China Ma 16, 2026. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang

Profits at China's industrial firms grew at their quickest pace in half a year last month, adding to broader signs of an uneven economic recovery in the first quarter as policymakers brace for the impact of the Middle East war.

The country's export engine stuttered last month while retail sales and industrial output cooled, although producer prices emerged from a years-long deflationary stretch, a shift that analysts warn could leave companies boxed in by rising costs but limited pricing power as demand remains fragile.

"The data has likely not reflected the impact of ⁠the Iran war yet," said Lynn Song, ING's chief economist for Greater China, underscoring growing risks to growth at home and abroad from the conflict as governments and businesses scramble to soften the blow.

Profits at industrial firms rose 15.8 percent in March from a year earlier, picking up from a 15.2 percent jump in the January-February period, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday.

For the first quarter, industrial profits grew 15.5 percent year-on-year as economic growth accelerated to 5 percent after hitting a three-year low in the previous quarter.

The figures point to growing divergence beneath the surface of the recovery.

While pockets of the economy tied to artificial intelligence remain buoyant, with Shannon Semiconductor, opens new tab posting a 79-fold surge in first-quarter net profit on the back of ⁠strong AI-related electronics demand, consumer-facing sectors continue to struggle.

Premium liquor maker Kweichow Moutai, opens new tab reported subdued performance as chronically weak domestic demand weighed on pricing and volumes.

"There are many uncertainties in the external environment, and the contradiction between strong domestic supply and weak demand still needs to be resolved," said NBS statistician Yu Weining.

Policymakers see their campaign to curb so-called "involution" - persistent, ⁠cut-throat price competition - as supportive for corporate margins over time, but its benefits are slow to materialise amid a sputtering recovery.

External risks are adding to the pressure. The Middle East crisis has heightened uncertainty over global demand and supply chains, threatening to ⁠further erode margins for Chinese manufacturers already grappling with soft orders and cautious spending by households and businesses.

"Moving forward, the higher energy prices are likely to translate into higher input costs for producers, which will either ⁠need to be passed on to consumers or absorbed through thinner margins and weaker profitability," ING's Song said.

Industrial profit figures cover firms with annual revenue of at least 20 million yuan ($2.93 million) from their main operations.

($1 = 6.8300 Chinese yuan renminbi)