Child deaths will rise this year as aid cuts reverse progress, says Gates

A child suffering from diphtheria rests inside a ward at De Martino Public Hospital, following a diphtheria outbreak, in Mogadishu, Somalia Aug 13, 2025. REUTERS/Feisal Omar/File Photo

Around 200,000 more children will likely die before their fifth birthday this year than in 2024 as international aid cuts undermine decades of progress, the Gates Foundation said on Thursday.

The projected increase would mark the first rise in preventable child deaths this century, Gates said, from an estimated 4.6 million in 2024 to 4.8 million this year. Child deaths have roughly halved since 2000.

"For decades, the world made steady progress saving children’s lives. But now, as challenges mount, that progress is reversing,” said Bill Gates, chair of the eponymous foundation, in a foreword to its annual Goalkeepers report.

AID CUTS HAVE SPREAD BEYOND THE US

The report tracks progress towards the United Nations sustainable development goals on reducing poverty and improving health. It usually comes out in September but was delayed this year due to the uncertainty over global health funding.

International aid cuts began with the US at the beginning of the year but have since spread to other major donors like Britain and Germany. Overall, global development assistance for health fell by just under 27 percent this year compared to 2024, the report says.

The cuts are a key reason for the reversal in progress on child mortality, Gates said, although other issues, like countries facing mounting debt and fragile health systems, are also factors. Earlier this year, Gates warned that the cuts would lead to more children dying.

If the cuts are permanent, that could mean between 12 and 16 million more child deaths by 2045, the report adds, depending on funding levels. This year, the increase in deaths could see them match 2023's number, the latest year for which the World Health Organization has data.

The figures in the report are based on modelling from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at Washington University.

Gates urged governments and individuals to step up and focus on innovative new tools as well as proven solutions, like vaccination and investment in primary healthcare, to boost child health.