September 17, 2026

Lula holds tight lead over Senator Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election, poll shows

A runoff between the president and the senator looks increasingly likely as neither nears 50 percent

Lula holds tight lead over Senator Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election, poll shows
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva greets supporters as he launches his reelection campaign at Primeiro de Maio Stadium in Sao Bernardo do Campo, Brazil, Aug 16, 2026. The stadium, formerly known as Vila Euclides, was the site of the mass metalworkers' assemblies led by Lula during the 1979 and 1980 strikes. REUTERS/Alexandre Meneghini

bdnews24.com

Reuters

Published : 18 Aug 2026, 01:09 AM

Updated : 08 Sep 2026, 09:33 AM

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva holds a tight lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, his main right-wing challenger, in a potential runoff ahead of October's election, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed on Monday.

* In a simulated second-round runoff, the leftist Lula would receive 47 percent of voter support compared with 44 percent for Bolsonaro, unchanged from last week's poll.

* The poll has a margin of error of two percentage points.

* In a first-round scenario, Lula would lead with 41 percent of the vote, followed by Bolsonaro at 36 per cent, each up one percentage point from a week earlier.

* Senator Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

* If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of valid votes in the first round, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff.

* The poll surveyed 2,003 people from Aug 14-16.

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