Published : 11 Sep 2026, 04:45 AM
Updated : 16 Sep 2026, 11:49 AM
Rising temperatures driven by fossil fuel use are transforming forests, wetlands and tundra into growing sources of greenhouse gases, potentially amplifying global heating by up to 30 percent, a new study has found.
As the planet warms, permafrost is thawing, wildfires are intensifying, and wetlands and lakes are heating up, releasing methane and carbon dioxide stored in soils and vegetation, creating feedback loops that further fuel the climate crisis.
A climate feedback loop is a cyclical chain reaction where an initial change in the Earth's system triggers further changes that either amplify or reduce the original effect.
The Guardian says scientists have long recognised such feedback mechanisms, but emissions from these natural sources have largely been left out of climate projections.
The new research found that emissions from permafrost, wetlands, freshwater systems, and wildfires could amplify global heating by 20 percent to 30 percent by the end of the century, adding an estimated 0.2 degree Celsius to 0.4 degree Celsius to average global temperatures.
Even seemingly small increases in global temperatures can sharply raise the risks of deadly heatwaves, floods, droughts, and other climate disasters, scientists say.
According to The Guardian, the UN last week acknowledged that the world is set to breach the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming limit above pre-industrial levels within the next few years, with climate impacts such as record heatwaves and wildfires expected to “strike faster, hit harder and last longer”.
But the new study warns that future warming could exceed many current projections because they fail to fully account for additional methane and carbon dioxide released as natural systems are disrupted.
“This hidden multiplier is missing from the models guiding climate policy, so those models are likely underestimating how much warming is coming – and overestimating how much carbon we can still afford to emit,” Sam Abernethy of Spark Climate Solutions Research, who led the study published in Environmental Research Letters, was quoted as saying by The Guardian.
The world's carbon cycles are now being disrupted in “real time”, said Rob Jackson of Stanford University, a co-author of the research.
“The results are a wake-up call, and it’s imperative that they be included in the next generation of climate policies,” Jackson told The Guardian.
A separate study earlier this year warned that the planet was moving closer to such a “point of no return”, where self-reinforcing climate changes could push global heating beyond meaningful human control, according to The Guardian.
The latest research, however, found that rapid cuts to fossil fuel emissions could still limit the additional warming caused by natural feedback.
Under the most optimistic scenario, these sources would add about 0.2 degree Celsius, compared with 0.4 degree Celsius under a high-emissions pathway, The Guardian reports.
Current government policies could put the world on track for 2.6 degrees Celsius of warming above pre-industrial levels, according to Climate Action Tracker, potentially exposing billions to severe impacts including sea-level rise and crop losses.
