El Nino conditions are present, US forecaster says

Expert says it threatens harvests as below-normal rainfall will hit key crops

A man catches fish as sits in his boat in the river Yamuna on a hot summer day in New Delhi, India, Jun 11, 2026. REUTERS/Adnan Abidi

El Nino conditions are present and expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026–27, the US Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.

The US government forecaster added that El Nino conditions developed over the past month.

● The El Nino is a phenomenon that occurs naturally, when weakening trade winds cause warmer ocean waters to build up in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This typically leads to higher global temperatures and altered weather patterns, bringing drought to some regions and heavy rainfall to others.

● "El Nino is likely to have a negative impact on crop yields in Southeast Asia and India, where El Nino is typically associated with below-normal rainfall," said Kyle Tapley, enterprise sales executive at Vaisala Xweather's WeatherDesk.

● The monsoon delivers nearly 70 percent of India's rainfall and is vital for the agricultural sector, which accounts for about 18 percent of the nearly $4 trillion economy. Below-normal rainfall could mean smaller harvests of crops such as rice, cotton and soybeans, while also weighing on winter crops.

● Meanwhile, Indonesian rice farmers are racing to get ahead of the usual planting schedule as they battle the threat of a lengthy dry spell this year. Malaysia's economic minister warned that El Nino could cause crop yields to fall by an average of between 8 percent and 10 percent this year.

● "El Nino typically leads to a less-active US hurricane season and we expect a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year. However, it is important to remember that a strong hurricane is still possible even in a less-active hurricane season," Tapley said.

● The US hurricane season began on Jun 1 and runs through Nov 30.