Published : 23 Aug 2026, 04:07 PM
Updated : 08 Sep 2026, 09:35 AM
A sharp surge in imports in the final month of the previous fiscal year signalled an emerging recovery in private investment. But economists, bankers and business leaders warn that a worsening gas and electricity crisis now threatens to derail those gains and push Bangladesh’s fragile economy deeper into trouble.
Data from Bangladesh Bank shows that businesses imported goods worth $7.51 billion in June -- a 71.08 percent year-on-year jump and the highest monthly figure in nearly three and a half years.
The surge followed a prolonged period of sluggish investment caused by domestic and global uncertainties.
Following the transition to a new government after the Feb 12 election, political stability began to return, prompting entrepreneurs to draw up new investment plans and boost imports of capital machinery and industrial raw materials.
Central bank data show that monthly merchandise imports last exceeded $7.5 billion in November 2022, when they stood at $7.59 billion. Since then, imports had remained below that level in every month, with most months recording between $5 billion and $6 billion.
Imports stood at $6.27 billion in July 2025, the first month of the 2025-26 financial year, marking 14.92 percent growth. They fell to $5.22 billion in August before rising to $6.21 billion in September and falling to $5.62 billion in October.
Imports were $5.80 billion in November, followed by $6.45 billion in December, $6.53 billion in January and $6.62 billion in February.
They fell to $5.83 billion in March before rising sharply to $7.07 billion in April. Imports stood at $6.11 billion in May and climbed to $7.51 billion in June.
Bangladesh imported a record $89.16 billion worth of goods in 2021-22, nearly 36 percent more than the previous year. Imports fell 15.76 percent to $75.66 billion in 2022-23 and another 11.11 percent to $66.72 billion in 2023-24.
They rose 2.44 percent to $68.35 billion in 2024-25 and increased a further 10.07 percent to $75.24 billion in 2025-26.
One of the key indicators of investment, imports of capital machinery, rose 13.80 percent in the last financial year. Imports of capital machinery stood at $3.21 billion, up from $2.82 billion in 2024-25.
Imports of intermediate goods for industry increased 15.20 percent to $47.69 billion in 2025-26, from $41.40 billion a year earlier.
Intermediate industrial goods are raw materials or inputs processed to produce finished products. They play an important role in production and exports across Bangladesh's industries, including plastics, readymade garments, jute and light engineering.
However, imports of goods required by the readymade garment industry, the country's main export-earning sector, fell 4 percent to $17.70 billion from $18.44 billion.
The Sheikh Hasina government had taken measures to curb import spending amid the dollar shortage. The interim government led by Muhammad Yunus followed the same approach.
The Awami League had repeatedly cited political stability as essential for development in response to criticism over what it described as a lack of democracy. After the fall of the Hasina government in August 2024 following a student-led uprising, the country experienced widespread uncertainty and instability.
The return of a new government through the Feb 12 election began to bring relief, restoring confidence among businesses and entrepreneurs. An environment conducive to investment started to emerge, and entrepreneurs who had been waiting for a more positive outlook began preparing to invest as conditions improved.
Former World Bank Dhaka office chief economist Zahid Hussain believes this was one of the reasons behind the rise in imports.
"Investors who had kept their hands folded and waited for a favourable environment amid instability and uncertainty began making new plans when that environment emerged. They started planning to set up and expand new industries and factories," he told bdnews24.com.
"Imports of capital machinery, industrial raw materials and other goods began to increase for these reasons," he said.
"The new government has been in power for six months. The beginning was quite good and gave everyone hope. The finance minister has also presented the budget. The budget included initiatives to boost investment and accelerate the economy.
"The central bank has announced a Tk 600 billion incentive fund. Entrepreneurs will receive loans at lower interest rates from this fund. The policy rate, or repo rate, has been reduced from 10 percent to 9.50 percent. Overall, there were signs of investment increasing, and that was reflected in higher imports."
Zahid said the country's foreign currency reserves were now reasonably satisfactory, meaning higher imports would not pose a major problem.
"But the biggest crisis now is the energy crisis. The crisis is worsening by the day. If the gas and electricity problems are not resolved, everything will fall apart," he said.
Syed Mahbubur Rahman, former chairman of the Association of Bankers, Bangladesh Limited (ABB) and managing director of Mutual Trust Bank, said the dollar shortage had eased, reserves were rising and the exchange rate had also moved downwards.
"We were viewing the increase in imports of capital machinery and goods needed by industries as a very good sign. It seemed that the investment slowdown would end and the economy would regain momentum," he told bdnews24.com.
But businesses are now facing severe gas and electricity shortages.
Anwar Ul Alam Chowdhury Parvez, president of Bangladesh Chamber of Industries (BCI) and former president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association, said factory production had fallen by 35 percent to 40 percent because of the shortages.
"The industrial sector has been pushed into deep crisis as a result. The risk of losing foreign orders in the readymade garment sector is increasing because the crisis is being widely reported," he told bdnews24.com.
Parvez said businesses were also worried about defaulting on bank loans because they were not receiving fuel on time, despite paying high bills.
"The new government came in, and we thought everything would get off to a good start. Many people made plans to invest. But somehow everything has gone wrong.
"Unless the energy crisis is resolved quickly, the question is no longer just about setting up new industries and factories; it is whether the existing ones will be able to survive," he said.
Parvez, also chairman of Evince Group, called for gas supplies for industry to be given the highest priority, along with an emergency "rescue package" to protect businesses and jobs.
