NATO shifts to providing Ukraine with longer-range weapons to counter expected Russian offensive

Slovakia’s decision to provide Ukraine with a Soviet-era S-300 air defence unit, a move made with the blessing of the United States, represents a new phase in the war, as allied countries look to help the Ukrainian military hold off an expected offensive from a newly concentrated Russian force and better prepare for a potentially long conflict.

In the early days of the invasion, NATO countries were quick to send short-range, defensive weapons to take out tanks and aircraft, including Javelin, NLAW and Stinger missiles, which were light, portable, high-tech and easy to use with little training.

But now the allied governments have shown a willingness to send heavier weaponry more suited to the coming battle in Donbas, including tanks and longer-range defensive weapons such as the S-300s, a Russian-made surface-to-air system used mainly to attack enemy aircraft.

“Our approach is evolving based on realities on the ground,” Margiris Abukevicius, Lithuania’s vice minister of defence, said this past week on a visit to Washington for diplomatic talks.

On Saturday, Britain said it would provide 120 armoured vehicles as well as new anti-ship missile systems to the Ukrainian military. The aid is in addition to 100 million pounds (about $130 million), worth of military equipment that Prime Minister Boris Johnson pledged to Ukraine a day earlier.

Western officials increasingly recognise that the war is likely to be a protracted conflict between two large armies, as neither side shows signs of wanting to give up the fight. That means that the kinds of arms Ukraine needs are changing. Kyiv’s commanders now need better air defence systems and longer-range weapons than they currently have to defend the bulk of the Ukrainian army in the country’s east.

So far, the Biden administration has not been willing to provide weapons that would allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russia, although some experts say that damaging Russian military airfields would improve Ukraine’s chances of withstanding a renewed offensive.

The Biden administration did say last week it will work with US allies to transfer Soviet-made tanks to bolster Ukrainian defences in the Donbas region. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has pleaded with the United States and its allies to send tanks and warplanes.

Ukrainian forces are best prepared to use Russian-designed systems of the kind that Warsaw Pact countries deployed in the Cold War. NATO countries in the alliance’s eastern flank still have stocks of those weapons and have said they are willing to give them to Ukraine if they are provided with newer replacements.

The Russian-designed S-300s are a good example. Slovakia’s prime minister said Friday that his country had provided the system to the Ukrainians, and the United States announced it would provide Patriot air defence systems to Slovakia, with other potential deployments to come. It remains unclear whether the S-300s have been delivered to the front lines yet.

The Ukrainians have the system in their inventory and already know how to use it. The S-300 will allow the Ukrainians to defend against several Russian aircraft attacking at once.

“This is additional capacity,” said retired Lt Gen Ben Hodges, the former top Army commander in Europe. “It’s a very accurate system.”

Another European diplomat, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss military planning, said Friday that NATO nations had not made final decisions on what more weapons to provide Ukraine. Allied war planners are working to assess the Ukrainian requirements in the near term — to hold off the coming Russian offensive — and over the longer term, since the war is likely to grind on for months or years.

The question is complicated. The most useful weapons are those that the Ukrainian military already knows how to employ effectively. The next best thing would be to find other weapons, the diplomat said, that the Ukrainians can be quickly trained to use.

Allied nations are ramping up training efforts in neighbouring countries. European officials said it could make sense to provide weapons that require a training period of weeks, instead of days, as long as those weapons would make a difference on the battlefield.

The next few weeks are likely to prove to be a critical time in the war. European intelligence officials have said Putin is likely to try to achieve battlefield gains by May 9, when he is set to give a Victory Day speech to the Russian public, this year commemorating the Soviet victory in World War II and the military operation in Ukraine.

Alexander Vindman, a retired Army lieutenant colonel and an expert on Ukraine, said the Ukrainians need more warplanes. About 70% of the Ukrainian air force is still operating, but the military command in Kyiv has been hesitant to use its hard-to-replace fighter planes for fear that they will be shot down.

In addition, Ukraine needs its ammunition stocks replenished and artillery systems to replace those destroyed by Russian attacks, he said. Small, medium-range armed drones could also prove critical. Such systems could be used to render Russian runways inoperable.

“That is a critical gap, the ability to strike deeper targets,” said Vindman, who was the chief witness against President Donald Trump in his first impeachment proceedings. “The Russians have the advantage of air power. They have the advantage in long-range artillery. They have the advantage in short-range ballistic missiles. In order to level the playing field, we need to transfer more.”

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