Economic expansion slows sharply in October–December as growth slips to 3%

Analysts say Middle East tensions and fuel shortages are disrupting production and supply chains now

Bangladesh’s GDP growth has stumbled in the second quarter of the 2025–26 fiscal year, falling to 3.03 percent in October–December from 4.96 percent in the first quarter.

The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) released updated figures on Monday.

Economists also pointed to the ongoing Middle East conflict and resulting fuel shortages, disrupting production and supply chains to dampen present growth momentum.

Sector-wise, the industrial sector recorded the weakest expansion at 1.27 percent, while agriculture grew 3.68 percent and services 4.45 percent.

The slowdown reflects the broader stagnation that has affected Bangladesh since the previous fiscal year.

Declining investment has weighed on industry, agriculture, and services alike.

As a result, FY2024–25 saw GDP growth fall to 3.49 percent -- the lowest in five years -- down from 4.22 percent in 2023–24, which was itself the slowest in four years.

Economists also note that the post-COVID recovery has been hampered by the political upheaval of 2024, which further weakened growth.

Before the pandemic, Bangladesh had achieved a record 8.15 percent GDP growth in 2018–19, but the subsequent COVID shock reduced expansion to 3.45 percent in 2019–20.

GDP is calculated as the total value of goods and services produced across the country over a fiscal year, reflecting overall economic activity.