Is Bangladesh ready to tackle risks of reopening in pandemic?

As the coronavirus epidemic rampaged through the country, changing the course of regular public life while bringing the economy to its knees, Bangladesh was left with an unenviable choice between protecting the lives of its citizens by pressing ahead with the nationwide lockdown and securing livelihoods by lifting it.

The government ultimately opted against extending the lockdown beyond May 30, allowing office and businesses to reopen on a limited scale in an effort to kickstart the floundering economy.

Worryingly, the efforts to restore some semblance of normalcy coincided with a soaring number of coronavirus cases and death across the country with the outbreak showing little sign of abating.

Questions inevitably arose on whether the decision to lift the lockdown was a timely one, especially when the rate of infections has not been curbed.

Moreover, is it possible to revive the economy with a partially mobilised workforce and more pertinently, is Bangladesh adequately equipped to follow through with the plan?

It is possible to relax the lockdown rules only when the epidemic has subsided, according to Dr Mushtuq Husain, former chief scientific officer of the Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research or IEDCR.

Most countries around the globe, especially in Europe, rolled back their lockdown measures as the infection rate was on the wane, he said.

“It is dangerous for public health if a lockdown is lifted while the disease is running rampant,” he told bdnews24.com.

Even as the government removed the lockdown restrictions despite the well-documented health risks, the move can hardly be said to have set the economy rolling over the last week, according to Prof Syed Abdul Hamid of Dhaka University's Institute of Health Economics.

The government ordered 25 percent of its employees to attend office even as public transport and rail services are yet to resume operations in full swing. Meanwhile, big shopping malls and superstores remain shuttered, he pointed out.

“It means that although the economy has been reopened to a certain extent, hardly anything has gone back to normal. All we can see is the economy ambling along with the aim of mitigating some of the losses.”

The government’s initiative to control the epidemic by demarcating neighbourhoods into three specific risk zones, based on the degree of the infection's prevalence, only a week after calling off the lockdown, proves that it never had a clear strategy to combat the disease in the immediate aftermath, according to Hamid.

Bangladesh began enforcing a nationwide shutdown of offices, industrial units and the public transport system, initially termed a 'general holiday', from Mar 26, weeks after the country’s first COVID-19 cases were confirmed.

The government subsequently issued  stay-at-home orders  from dusk till dawn, with citizens only permitted to venture outside in cases of emergency.

However, the implementation of the lockdown came under the scanner with the authorities in many parts of the country failing to properly enforce the restrictions aimed at curtailing the spread of COVID-19.

Under the circumstances, Bangladesh should focus on taking the utmost precaution as it restarts its economy, said KAS Murshid, director general of Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies.

He believes it is imperative that the workforces in all sectors are equipped with proper protective gear just like medical workers.

“You can reopen the economy provided the proper preparations have been made. You must at least be 90 percent prepared if not 100 percent,” said the economist.

Passengers appeared oblivious to the physical distancing rules as they scrambled to get down from a launch at Sadarghat terminal in Dhaka on Sunday. Photo: Asif Mahmud Ove

WHEN THE LOCKDOWN WAS RELAXED

It only took Bangladesh a month to reach the grim milestone of 100 confirmed COVID-19 cases after the disease was first detected on Mar 8.

The government subsequently ordered a lockdown on Mar 26, urging citizens to remain at home as much as possible, while suspending transport links throughout the country.

However, the caseload  began moving in an upward trajectory in April even after the country was locked down with the tally of infections crossed 10,000 on May 4.

Nonetheless, the government decided to allow shops and factories to partially reopen, subject to their compliance with health and hygiene directives.

All institutions, apart from schools, began reopening on a 'limited scale' from May 31 as part of the efforts to resuscitate the economy.

At the time, the coronavirus had infected 44,604 and killed 601, according to government data.

But by Jun 7, the caseload surged to 65,769 as the body count hit 888, jumping by 21,000 cases across the country in the space of a week.

Crowded public transport services, which fly in the face of the safe distancing norms, have become a common sight despite other restrictions such as the closure of shops in the evening and limited travel at night remaining in effect.

Fearing the worst, some quarters have called for fresh lockdown measures to curb the rapid spread of the infection.

Planning Minister MA Mannan believes there was no alternative but to removing the lockdown and reopening the country as the economy had hit rock bottom during the two months of shutdown.

“We have lifted the lockdown as it was better than allowing the worst to happen. Our economy is heavily dependent on exporting goods to the western world. Even those countries were reeling from the impact of the pandemic but are now reopening their economies in a disciplined way."

"They have now started issuing some work orders as well. We’ll fall behind if we don’t keep our economy open in the present circumstances.”

The government's current strategy to bridle the epidemic is to identify and flag COVID19 hotspots and impose area-wise lockdowns accordingly.

“Both the cases and deaths are seeing huge leaps. Apart from educational institutions, everything else has been reopened. The ‘mapping and zoning’ process is the only means to implement the containment plan,” Helal Uddin Ahmed, secretary to the Local Government Division, told bdnews24.com.

The Local Government Division will start implementing the plan once it receives the updated data on the current state of the epidemic in cities, districts, upazilas and wards across the country, he said.

WHAT’S HAPPENING ON THE GROUND

More than 20,000 people have been diagnosed with COVID-19 in the Dhaka district, including the metropolitan area, accounting for one-third of the confirmed cases in the country.

There were more than 2,500 infected patients in each of the Chattogram and Narayanganj districts. The tally of infections has reportedly crossed 1,000 in Gazipur and Cumilla as well.

Initially, Dhaka and Narayanganj had the highest concentration of COVID-19 cases in the country.

Though the government, on paper, placed the entire district of Narayanganj under lockdown, its implementation was lax by most accounts as people continued travelling freely to and from other districts, ignoring the movement restrictions.

As garment factories reopened during the early stages of the lockdown, pictures of garment factory workers travelling hundreds of kilometres to Dhaka, Narayanganj and Gazipur in sizeable groups also raised eyebrows, fuelling concerns over the increased risk of contagion.

Many of the workers later returned to their home districts when the government ordered factories to close once again in the face of widespread criticism.

Most members of the public were on the move again during the Eid-ul-Fitr holiday, raising the likelihood of aggravating the outbreak.

It was around that time the government announced economic activities would be restarted at a reduced capacity during a transitional period from May 31 to Jun 15, instead of extending the lockdown.

At least 60 million people work in the 42 formal and informal sectors of the country, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics and the Ministry of Labour and Employment.

The government decided to run its offices with 25 percent of the workforce until Jun 15.

However, garment exporters' lobby BGMEA could not provide the number of workers who have rejoined work in the apparels sector.

The figures for workers returning to their jobs in the private sector also eluded experts.

Workers wearing face masks sew garment at a factory in Dhaka's Mirpur amid the coronavirus outbreak. Photo: Asif Mahmud Ove

THE ECONOMIC LOSS

Experts are yet to put a specific figure on the economic losses wrought by the coronavirus crisis in Bangladesh, with many analysts projecting a big slump in the GDP growth in the ongoing fiscal year 2020.

Planning Minister Mannan also acknowledged that the country has fallen behind its target of 8.2 percent GDP growth in FY2020 as a result of the economic fallout from the epidemic from March to May.

“I can’t give you the exact figure as I’m not a researcher, but I believe we lost a quarter of our annual turnover.”

Bangladesh posted more than 8% GDP growth in the last fiscal year and aimed to reach 8.2 % in fiscal 2020.

Leading international institutions are also projecting a grim outlook for the economy with the International Monetary Fund predicting a 3.8 percent GDP growth in FY20. The World Bank meanwhile forecast 2 to 3 percent GDP growth.

Economists in the country estimated a financial setback of more than Tk 2.17 trillion in agriculture, industrial and service sectors between the months of April and May, said Prof Abdul Hamid.

The figure also takes into account the losses racked up by small businesses during the Eid and Bengali New Year holidays.

WHAT NOW?

The government is gearing up to perform a balancing act between effective containment of the epidemic and resumption economic activities, in part by promising strict measures to deal with infection clusters.

The plan entails dividing areas into three zones - red, yellow and green – based on infection rates in different localities and locking them down accordingly.

But will it be enough to bring the crisis under control?

“The infection rate is not the same across the country. If there’s a cluster which triggers mass community transmissions, then the authorities must restrict movement in that area as they did in Mirpur's Tolarbagh, and Shibchar in Madaripur,” said epidemiologist Mushtuq.

The areas at risk should be sealed off if it they are expansive and have a high rate of infection, according to him.

As the disease has spread across the entire country, the authorities must limit the number of travellers on public transport services, he added.

“Maintaining social distancing rules and avoiding gatherings or contact between people at marketplaces are a must — this is applicable to all areas.”

On whether it is possible to identify high-risk zones and take appropriate measures, Mushtuq believes the Directorate General of Health Services can provide data specific to different areas as they have already gathered information on infected patients from all over the country.

“It’s a public health crisis. Therefore, people should be on board with plans to limit the spread of the coronavirus. Increased policing and curfews are the traditional means of containing diseases. Yes, the police can take some action but the community must also play an active role.”

Mushtuq stressed the need for creating awareness among the people on the "dos and don’ts" in an epidemic.

The authorities should enforce a strict lockdown and implement it diligently unlike the previous one, according to Prof Abdul Hamid.

The supply of food, drinks and medicine should be ensured for the poor living in the areas under lockdown at least 15 to 20 days beforehand, he said.

“Also, the hospitals should do all they can to extend their services to the vulnerable,” he said.

The failure to curb the coronavirus outbreak in Bangladesh can be attributed to a ‘lack of awareness’ among members of the public during the last lockdown, said Helal.

“The government was actively trying to limit the outbreak from the very beginning and accordingly closed down offices, educational institutions, factories and public transport system. But we failed to capitalise on the shutdown. Things would never have become so bad if people followed social distancing rules,” he said.

No-one can implement a lockdown forcefully, he said, adding: “The caseload and the death toll are rising. A great challenge lies ahead as the country strives to keep health services as well as the entire economy running.”

“We don’t know how long this will continue and can’t expect the world to return to what it was in 2019. Therefore, we must move forward focusing on this new reality,” said BIDS Director-General Murshid.

With additional reporting from Zafar Ahmed and Faysal Atik; written by Sabrina Karim Murshed and edited by Turaj Ahmad