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Published : 16 Jan 2026, 06:55 PM
India has been watching developments in Iran with growing unease as protests and economic pressures have shaken the country’s clerical leadership, raising fears that regime change could undermine New Delhi’s longstanding regional strategy, NDTV reports.
India and Iran have shared deep historical and strategic ties shaped by geography, access and regional balance.
With Pakistan blocking India’s overland routes to Afghanistan and Central Asia, Iran has remained Delhi’s only viable western corridor, while Tehran’s Shia leadership has traditionally acted as a counterweight to Pakistan’s influence in the region, forming a key pillar of India’s West Asia policy.
According to the Indian news channel, a weakened or collapsing Iranian state could further narrow India’s strategic manoeuvring space, already under strain from recent regime change in Bangladesh, security challenges linked to Pakistan, China’s regional expansion and shifting United States policies under President Donald Trump.
An unstable Iran, it added, could reshape diplomatic alignments, trade routes and security calculations that India has managed for decades.
NDTV said Iran’s importance to India is centred on the Chabahar Port, which has been developed to provide India with direct access to the Iranian coast and onward connectivity to Central Asia through road and rail links, bypassing Pakistan.
It noted that such corridors depend on political stability, security guarantees and long-term planning, all of which could be jeopardised by regime change in Tehran.
Citing Rajan Kumar, a professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University, the broadcaster said in a post–Ayatollah Ali Khamenei power struggle, Chabahar could become “a hostage to instability rather than a strategic asset”.
It also pointed to Iran’s role in balancing Pakistan despite being a Muslim-majority country. It said Tehran’s Shia leadership has been a vocal critic of Sunni extremist groups in Pakistan that promote anti-India narratives and target Indian interests.
This alignment, NDTV added, worked in India’s favour in the 1990s and early 2000s when Iran and India backed anti-Taliban forces in Afghanistan, limiting Pakistan’s influence and preventing it from dominating the country’s political future.
According to the channel, Iran also supported India diplomatically when Pakistan pushed for international sanctions over Kashmir in the mid-1990s. It warned that internal weakness in Iran could indirectly benefit Pakistan by eroding a key regional counterweight.
On trade, NDTV reported that India is Iran’s eighth-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade worth about $1.3 billion to $1.7 billion in the past year.
It said India has invested more than $1 billion in Chabahar and related projects, some of which have already been delayed or restructured due to US sanctions, and that any regime change could put these investments at risk.
On China, it said Beijing’s influence in Iran is already significant. The two signed a 25-year strategic cooperation pact in 2021, and China was Iran’s largest trading partner in 2025, importing over $14.5 billion worth of goods.
With Western sanctions biting, Tehran has relied heavily on Beijing for discounted oil sales and infrastructure funding.
India’s presence at Chabahar, the broadcaster said, acts as a modest counterbalance.
Prolonged chaos or a new regime in Iran may push Tehran closer to Beijing for security and investment. NDTV cited reports of discussions on Chinese-funded power plants and port projects in Khuzestan.
Outlining India’s options, it cited former Indian diplomat Nirupama Menon Rao as saying New Delhi’s approach should remain measured and cautious.
She said India must prioritise the safety of its citizens through strong consular readiness and contingency planning, while closely assessing developments without rushing to conclusions.
Rao warned that prolonged instability in Iran could spill over through energy markets, shipping routes, diaspora vulnerabilities and militant networks, with consequences reaching South Asia.
India’s strategy, she said, should focus on steady engagement, preparedness and continuous assessment rather than posturing.
