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Published : 08 Oct 2025, 09:56 AM
Carlyle Group released its own measure of US economic data on Tuesday, including a sharply lower estimate for September jobs growth despite rising economic output, to a market left wanting official releases because of the government shutdown.
The global investment firm estimated that US employers added just 17,000 jobs last month, far below the 54,000 expected in the nonfarm payrolls report, which had been scheduled for release last week.
The firm's internal indicators showed GDP growth running at a 2.7% annualised pace in September, a 3.8% drop in energy prices, and a 3.3% increase in prices for services, excluding shelter.
'DISCONNECT' BETWEEN EMPLOYMENT, ECONOMY
"If you look solely at implied payroll employment growth, you'd think this was an economy on the cusp of recession or that has already fallen into recession," Jason Thomas, head of global research and investment strategy at Carlyle, told Reuters.
"We have seen a big rebound in household consumption and ongoing business spending fuelled by the AI boom. It's a really interesting time to see the disconnect between employment and broader measures of economic health."
With official statistics delayed, investors are increasingly turning to alternative sources for real-time insights, and data-rich firms are positioning themselves as stopgap providers of economic intelligence.
The US government shutdown has entered its seventh day and is showing little sign of resolution.
Private data providers are seeing a sharp uptick in demand. Research website Bigdata.com saw a 175% surge in usage after the shutdown, its founder, Armando Gonzalez, said in an interview.
"When the official data channels go dark, investors are going to continue going for alternatives," Gonzalez said.
Carlyle drew the data from its portfolio of 277 companies, which employ just under 730,000 people, and 694 real estate investments.
Thomas said the boom in spending on artificial intelligence was also out of step with the rest of the economy.
"All the oxygen is being sucked by AI," Thomas said, pointing to booming demand for X-rays and other key semiconductor components. This growth is "uncorrelated," he added. "It reflects the secular technological shock."
Other private data released in recent days also point to weak hiring. Job search firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said last week planned hiring in September hit its lowest since 2009, when the industry was reeling from the financial crisis.
