Nepal think-tank foresees ‘average’ SAARC summit

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “neighbourhood first” policy and speeches of making SAARC a strong regional bloc have raised hopes of collective gains for SAARC.

But a leading Nepal based think-tank foresees “an average” SAARC summit in Kathmandu in November, despite Modi's push to activate the regional grouping.

“It’ll all depend on how he deals with Pakistan and what they (India, Pakistan) discuss,” Sunil KC, CEO and founder of the Asian Institute of Diplomacy and International Affairs (AIDIA) based in Nepal told bdnews24.com.

India is the most influential member of the South Asia’s economic and political forum, SAARC, started functioning from 1985.

Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives and Afghanistan are the other members.

But analysts say the association has no collective gains to show for, which even its Secretary-General Arjun Bahadur Thapa in Apr during his Dhaka visit acknowledged. It “could not live up to its expectations”, he had said.

Modi came to power in May sending a strong message of working together with the SAARC countries by inviting all heads of states in his swearing-in ceremony, a step that Sunil KC termed “oath-diplomacy”.

Later, he made his first overseas visit to a SAARC country Bhutan. He also visited Nepal in Aug. Modi also asked India’s space researchers to build a SAARC satellite as a gift of India.

“He (Modi) already proved him one of the best leaders of South Asia. He left a very good impression among the member countries with his beginning ‘oath diplomacy’,” Sunil KC toldbdnews24.com while visiting Dhaka last week.

“He wants to make India a global player that’s why he wants to make SAARC summit much more effective and better than the previous summit.

“He wants to make SAARC a South Asia Union like EU and wants one currency, one visa for all countries.

“But much of it will depend on how he deals with Pakistan and what kind of discussions he will have with Pakistan PM in Kathmandu,” he said

“This (India-Pakistan relations) is the biggest challenge,” he believed.

Let’s say average summit

The analyst says he is ready to say the upcoming summit “the best” if leaders initiate talks of making South Asia Union like the EU, instead of traditional economic and trade discussions.

“Just start talking about it. If we can think about one currency, one visa and then the true sense of connectivity can happen,” Sunil KC said.

“But I do not think it’s going to happen in this summit. So it’ll be an average one (summit), not so good, so bad, let’s say average one”.

“Pakistan and India have their own big problem. But it became a problem for the whole South Asia. This should be addressed and supported by all other member counties”.

He also advised SAARC to be more inclusive and hear the voices of the people.

“They could keep at least one brainstorming session for the civil society and think-tanks to make it interesting, participatory.

“You have to put people at the centre for what the SAARC is. But they don’t take the voice of the people into account”.

China can make a difference

Sunil KC was also a co-founder of Movement for Change-M4C, a civil society movement and one of the initiator of ‘Nepal Resolution Introduced in US Congress last year in Aug.

He also gives annual lecture at the Slovak Republic and Estonia universities on South Asia's politics and foreign relations.

He believes giving China a SAARC membership can infuse dynamism in this grouping.

But, he said, “India will not allow China to be a SAARC member, unless it becomes a member of the ASEAN”.

“….right now India is big in power, politics and economics (within SAARC). If china comes then it will be second,” he said, indicating that China’s presence as a member would make SAARC “stronger”.

China is currently an observer like the EU and the US.

He also lamented that even after nearly a decade SAARC had no research wing and lack the use of IT in communications.

He, however, also saw “mindset” problems among South Asian countries to work together.

“We have lot of prospects but we cannot make any gains,” he said, for example, despite thousands of hydro-power potentials South Asian countries lack electricity.

“We have to change our mindset,” he said.

The regional trade among SAARC counties are hovering around 5 percent only, compared to 40 percent among ASEAN group.

Nepal’s show

Strategically located Nepal, between India and China, is going to host the 18th summit on Nov 26-27, third time after 1987 and 2002.

Themed on ‘Deeper Integration for Peace and Prosperity’, the SAARC annual gathering will be completed in four stages.

It will begin with the 46th session of the Programming Committee on Nov 22 followed by the 41st session of the Standing Committee on Nov 23-24, and 36th session of the SAARC Council of Ministers on Nov 25 before the main summit led by heads of states.

The summit will give an opportunity to Nepal authorities to showcase this new republic to the SAARC leaders.

Rich of its culture and Himalayas, the landlocked Nepal is, however, one of the poorest countries of the world.

It is still struggling to overcome the legacy of a decade-old Maoist insurrection, leaving more than 12,000 people dead and 100,000 people displaced according to UN figures. It became a republic only in May 2008.

Sunil KC said his country was trying its best to give a good impression to the neighbouring leaders.

“But it’s very difficult. Our airport is third in the worst airport list of the world. Even we have to rent bullet-proof car for the heads of the states. The venue is not even much attractive,” he said.