Are earthquake epicentres close to Dhaka a warning sign?

Experts say the danger lies less in the tremors themselves than in Dhaka’s weak buildings, poor planning and lack of public preparedness

A series of earthquakes with epicentres close to Dhaka has raised fresh concerns over the capital’s ability to withstand a major seismic disaster.

On Jun 22, a magnitude 4 earthquake shook the country. Its epicentre was in Rupganj of Narayanganj, only 16km from Dhaka’s seismic monitoring centre.

Four weeks earlier, on May 26, another mild tremor was felt in the capital and elsewhere, with its origin in Bhaluka of Mymensingh, 61km north of Dhaka. On Nov 21 last year, a magnitude 5.7 earthquake had its epicentre in Madhabdi of Narsingdi, just 13km from the capital.

Experts say the locations matter. A powerful earthquake in or near these zones could cause severe damage in a city already burdened by unplanned growth, weak buildings and a dense population.

What Do Epicentres Near Dhaka Signal?

Former Dhaka University geology professor Syed Humayun Akhter said smaller quakes in Narayanganj, Narsingdi and Sylhet point to accumulated seismic energy along fault zones stretching from Sylhet to Teknaf.

“There is enough energy in the subduction zone to produce an earthquake of magnitude 8.2 to 9. Even if 60 percent of that energy is released, it could mean a magnitude 8 quake,” he said.

He warned that even a magnitude 7.5 earthquake could trigger a major disaster, especially if the epicentre is within 70km to 100km of Dhaka.

“Dhaka will be the worst affected,” Humayun said, adding that the scale of destruction would depend on building quality, foundations and soil conditions.

A 2009 joint survey by the Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme and JICA estimated that a magnitude 7 or stronger earthquake could cause 72,000 buildings to collapse in Dhaka.

Where Dhaka’s Risks Lie

Urban planner Adil Muhammad Khan, executive director at the Institute for Planning and Development, said the city’s risk has been made worse by decades of poor enforcement of building codes.

“Thousands of buildings may collapse in a major earthquake,” he said. “In many cases, only architectural plans were approved, while structural safety was not properly assessed.”

He said large areas of wetlands and water bodies filled up after 2000 now face the risk of soil amplification and liquefaction, which can intensify shaking. He identified Purbachal, Bashundhara, Jalsiri and expanded parts of Mirpur as among the more vulnerable areas.

Adil warned that a magnitude 7 quake near Dhaka could be “catastrophic”. He said hospitals, schools, fire service facilities and other emergency infrastructure also need urgent assessment because their failure would cripple rescue operations.

His recommendations include ward-level open spaces, stronger gas and power lines, and retrofitting critical buildings such as hospitals and fire stations. Ideally, he said, every neighbourhood should have an open space within 500 metres for use as shelter after a disaster.

BUET professor Mehdi Ahmed Ansary said Bangladesh has always faced earthquake risk, but the absence of frequent major quakes has created a false sense of safety.

“There has always been a risk of earthquakes. People think the risk is low because earthquakes do not happen often. Venezuela had a major earthquake after 125 years,” he said.

He estimates that 30 to 45 percent of buildings in Bangladesh are vulnerable. The problem, Prof Ansary said, is not only old buildings but also new ones being built without proper enforcement of rules.

“The issue is our buildings,” Ansary said. “Building code enforcement can be a short-term measure, while assessing the risk of each building must be part of a long-term plan.”

Experts estimate that if a major earthquake strikes within 100km of Dhaka, casualties could reach 200,000 to 300,000 and around 35 percent of buildings could collapse.

What is the Government’s Preparedness?

The government says it has started work on preparedness.

Disaster Management Directorate's Director General Rezwanur Rahman said Prime Minister Tarique Rahman has already held two meetings on earthquake preparedness and ordered steps to create urban volunteer groups involving government and non-government organisations.

More than 43,000 volunteers have already been listed, he said.

Disaster Management and Relief Minister Asadul Habib Dulu told parliament on Jun 23 that 445 safe shelters had been identified in the Dhaka North and South city corporations. Of them, 189 are in the north and 256 in the south.

He also said the government plans to prepare 100,000 volunteers for post-earthquake rescue and emergency response in and around Dhaka.

Rezwanur said the government is checking whether the identified shelters are usable and are preparing an inventory of rescue equipment held by public and private agencies. The Armed Forces Division, Fire Service and other agencies together have more than 4,000 pieces of relevant equipment, he said.

The Fire Service and Civil Defence Director Lt Col Md Mahmudul Hasan said special earthquake response teams are in place in every division, with a dedicated team for Dhaka.

He said training, drills and equipment are being maintained, but acknowledged that rescue operations in Old Dhaka would be particularly difficult.

“Any rescue operation there is challenging,” he said, adding that awareness campaigns are being carried out in the area.

Experts say Dhaka cannot stop earthquakes, but it can reduce the scale of disaster — if it acts before the next major shock arrives.