El Nino to strengthen through the end of the year, US forecaster says

US forecasters put the chance of the climate pattern lasting into early 2027 at 97 percent

Satellite imagery showing the difference from average sea surface temperatures at the equator in the tropical Pacific Ocean (depicted using various shades of red and orange for warmth) during the first week of June 2026, as compared with the baseline used by NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch via NOAA Satellites

El Nino will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97 percent chance it will persist through early spring 2027, the US Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.

"There is an 81 percent chance of a very strong El Nino during October-December that would rank among the largest El Nino events in the historical record going back to 1950," the US weather forecaster added.

The El Nino is a phenomenon that occurs naturally, when weakening trade winds cause warmer ocean waters to build up in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

This typically leads to higher global temperatures and altered weather patterns, bringing drought to some regions and heavy rainfall to others.

Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather said El Nino events typically result in cooler and wetter conditions across the Midwest during the late summer months, favourable for corn and soybeans during their moisture sensitive reproductive phases, and thus a higher likelihood of increased yield and production for both crops.

A strong to super-strong eastern Pacific-type El Nino event is expected to form this summer and autumn, raising risks for extreme weather such as flooding and heatwaves across China this year and the next, state news agency Xinhua reported, citing forecasts by the National Climate Centre.

"El Nino episodes typically lead to a weaker monsoon season for India, and at present, monsoonal rainfall has been 40 percent below the long term average. Thus, negative impacts are likely for summer crops there," Keeney said.

Monsoon in India is expected to bring below-average rainfall to the country's western and southern regions over the next fortnight, potentially slowing the sowing of cotton, soybeans and corn, two senior weather officials said.

The United Nations weather agency last week raised its forecast for the rapid emergence of a strong El Nino in the coming months, warning that the phenomenon is likely to drive global temperatures higher.