Flood conditions in northeast lowlands likely to improve by late next week

Forecast points to reduced rainfall towards the end of the week in the northeast

The Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC) says the overall flood situation in the low-lying Haor areas of northeastern Bangladesh could see a turnaround by the end of next week.

Mustafa Kamal Jihan, an assistant engineer at the centre, said on Thursday night that the current trend of heavy to very heavy downpours is likely to persist until May 6.

He noted that precipitation levels are expected to drop from May 7 to May 10, transitioning to moderate or moderately heavy rain, which should lead to an improvement in the flood conditions.

According to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, rainfall between 11mm and 22mm is classified as moderate, while 88mm or more is considered very heavy.

A special bulletin issued by the FFWC on Thursday night pointed out that intense rainfall since Monday has pushed the Bhugai-Kangsha, Someswari, Magra, and Sutang rivers above their pre-monsoon danger marks.

This has left the Haor-adjacent lowlands of Netrokona and Habiganj submerged, destroying standing paddy crops and causing severe waterlogging in district towns.

Latest data indicates that while the water levels of the Surma-Kushiyara and Dhanu-Baulai rivers have risen over the last 24 hours, they currently remain below the pre-monsoon red line.

Citing the Met Office and global weather agencies, the FFWC observed that the Haor basin and its upstream areas have recorded higher-than-normal rainfall over the past week.

This trend is set to continue from Apr 30 to May 7, with the region bracing for up to 350mm of rain.

Experts warn that the water levels of major rivers and their tributaries are likely to swell during the first half of the week, potentially aggravating the flood situation in Netrokona.

There is also a looming risk of new flooding in the low-lying Haor areas of Sylhet, Sunamganj, Moulvibazar, and Habiganj.

As the rain is expected to let up during the latter half of the week, river levels may retreat below danger thresholds.

This shift offers a glimmer of hope for a gradual recovery across the affected north-eastern districts.