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Published : 02 Feb 2026, 01:39 AM
Bagerhat is voting into uncertainty. With the Awami League barred from the race, the familiar arithmetic of the district’s four parliamentary seats has collapsed -- replaced by internal fractures within the BNP and a resurgent Jamaat-e-Islami sensing its moment.
What once looked predictable now feels volatile, shaped as much by rebellion as by rivalry.
At the centre of the churn stands former BNP lawmaker MAH Selim, now contesting three seats as an independent, unsettling his former party and, voters say, tilting the field towards Jamaat.
FRACTURED BATTLEFIELD
Past credible elections suggest a mixed legacy: Awami League dominance in one seat, tight contests in others, and a clear Jamaat victory in Bagerhat-4, with near-misses in Bagerhat-3 and Bagerhat-2.
This time, without the Awami League, those margins matter more than ever.
BNP leaders insist the party remains united and poised to win all four seats. Jamaat leaders counter that their long organisational presence and electoral history have energised grassroots workers.
The BNP’s challenge is compounded by the fact that all four of its candidates are new faces, while two of Jamaat’s four candidates are also first-time contenders -- a race shaped by novelty and name recognition alike.
BAGERHAT-1: MINORITY VOTES IN THE BALANCE
Comprising Chitalmari, Mollahat and Fakirhat, Bagerhat-1 has long been considered an Awami League stronghold. That certainty has vanished.
BNP has fielded Kapil Krishna Mondal, a Hindu leader, in a calculated bid to consolidate minority votes -- often decisive here.
Jamaat’s candidate is Mashiur Rahman Khan. Selim is also contesting, alongside candidates from multiple smaller parties.
• Total voters: 375,560
Men: 190,838 | Women: 184,720 | Third Gender: 2
Voters say the Hindu electorate could once again play a decisive role -- but whether the BNP’s strategy resonates remains uncertain.
BAGERHAT-2: REBELLION TAKES TOLL ON BNP
Covering Sadar and Kachua, this seat has historically seen fierce BNP–Awami League contests. With the former absent, Jamaat has emerged as a serious contender, aided by Selim’s independent bid.
BNP’s nominee is Supreme Court lawyer Sheikh Mohammad Zakir Hossain; Jamaat has fielded Sheikh Manjurul Haque Rahad. Selim’s return -- after years away from politics -- has complicated the race.
• Total voters: 338,009
Men: 167,739 | Women: 170,265 | Third Gender: 5
Many voters believe the BNP’s divided base has pushed Jamaat into a comparatively stronger position.
BAGERHAT-3: JAMAAT EYES POLL POSITION
In Mongla and Rampal, Jamaat -- once the BNP’s electoral ally -- now contests independently. The BNP has nominated Sheikh Faridul Islam, but Selim’s presence again clouds the equation.
• Total voters: 266,864
Men: 132,350 | Women: 134,510 | Third Gender: 4
Jamaat, repeatedly finishing second here, is now openly aiming for the top spot.
BAGERHAT-4: OLD GROUND, NEW FIGHT
Comprising Morrelganj and Sharankhola, Bagerhat-4 carries Jamaat’s clearest legacy, with victories in the 1990s and early 2000s.
Jamaat’s Md Abdul Alim faces BNP’s Somnath Dey, alongside candidates from several other parties.
• Total voters: 380,678
Men: 191,812 | Women: 188,863 | Third Gender: 3
With the Awami League out, Jamaat is pushing hard to reclaim what it sees as lost ground.
WHAT JAMAAT SAYS
Bagerhat Jamaat chief Rezaul Karim said: “We nominated candidates early. They have worked at the grassroots for a long time. We have a history of winning here, and that is energising our leaders and activists.”
He said the party was optimistic about all four seats.
BNP ON REBELLION
A BNP supporter warned: “BNP has rebel candidates in all four seats. Voters are confused. Those who promised to work for the party nominee are now contesting independently… This is putting the Sheaf of Paddy at serious risk.”
District BNP Joint Convenor Khadim Niamul Nasir rejected that view: “There is no internal conflict. Everyone is united to ensure victory for BNP candidates.”
Selim, however, remains unapologetic: “If I don’t contest, other parties will win these seats. The BNP will see that the candidates it nominated cannot win even a single seat in Bagerhat.”
In this altered landscape, Bagerhat’s verdict may hinge less on party strength than on fragmentation -- and on how many votes rebellion can pull away before polling day.
