Concerns over possible violence and turnout keep the nation on the edge as the Awami League candidates are fighting rebels from their own party
Published : 07 Jan 2024, 02:37 AM
Under a dark cloud of violence, Bangladesh gears up for a general election boycotted by the BNP after weeks of political protests and clashes – seen as a test for the government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, which refused to step down and transfer power to a caretaker administration.
The election materials were sent to the polling stations earlier, and the ballot papers will reach the centres by Sunday morning amid strict security measures.
The voting will be held at 42,000 centres in 299 out of 300 constituencies from 8am to 4pm. The election to one centre will be held later as a candidate died there.
Nearly 120 million voters will pick up their representatives from among around 2,000 candidates.
With the BNP staying away from the election for a second time, the results are almost predictable.
Now confirming the turnout “acceptable” is the main challenge facing the Election Commission.
Inspector General of Police Chowdhury Abdullah Al-Mamun said on Friday they have intelligence reports about a plot to create panic through violence surrounding the election, but such incidents could not be prevented despite heightened security measures.
The BNP’s hartal, or shutdown, to disrupt the election began on Saturday morning. In two days before the vote, arson attacks were reported in at least 14 polling stations in nine districts.
On the night before the hartal, at least four people were killed in a grisly arson attack that sent shock waves through the nation.
The Awami League and the BNP have blamed each other for the incidents of violence.
The ruling party complained to the Election Commission about the BNP’s “pyro-terrorism”, and asked its supporters to be on guard.
“No one has the power to bar people from exercising their constitutional rights. We urge the people to brave conspiracies and fears, and join the festival of democracy tomorrow [Sunday],” Awami League Office Secretary Biplab Barua said on Saturday.
The BNP is urging the citizens to shun the vote.
“It’s an election of dummy candidates and seat-sharing. We urge the voters not to visit the polling stations. Say ‘no’ to this vote and stay at home,” Senior Joint Secretary General Ruhul Kabir Rizvi said after a procession in Dhaka in support of the hartal in the morning.
Hasina, the president of the Awami League, nevertheless expressed her hope for free, fair and impartial polls.
“I appeal to all political parties and institutions that believe in democracy and the rule of law not to indulge in or fuel any grotesque ideas that disrupt the constitutional process,” she said in a televised address to the nation on Thursday.
The Awami League candidates are fighting rebels from their own party this time in most seats, raising concerns over violent confrontations.
On his part, Chief Election Commissioner Kazi Habibul Awal urged the candidates, their supporters and election officials to follow the rules properly.
Voting will be suspended at centres or constituencies where irregularities will be reported, the CEC warned in an address to the nation broadcast on Saturday evening.
“Negligence, dishonesty or lapses in duty will not be tolerated,” he warned the officials. “Fake votes, vote rigging, ballot box snatching, illegal transactions and use of muscle power will be dealt with firmly.”
12TH GENERAL ELECTION AT A GLANCE
- Voting will be held in 299 out of 300 seats up for grabs as Aminul Haque, an independent candidate for Naogaon-2, died during the campaign. The voting to the seat will be held later.
- The number of voters in the 299 constituencies is over 119.32 million, including over 60.5 million male, nearly 58.74 million female and 848 transgender voters.
- Voting will be held from 8am to 4pm on Sunday.
- There will be more than 260,000 voting booths in over 42,000 polling stations.
- The voting will be held through ballot papers.
- Presiding officers will send the results to the returning officers after counting. Formal results will be announced from the Election Commission in Dhaka.
- Nearly 1,970 candidates include 1,532 nominated by 28 political parties and 437 independents. They also include a record number of 97 women.
- The Awami League has the highest number of 265 candidates while the Jatiya Party, the main opposition in parliament, has fielded 264 aspirants.
- Six candidates from the 14-Party Alliance are contesting the election with the Awami League’s Boat symbol.
- In the election, 66 returning officers and 590 assistant returning officers are working in the constituencies.
- Each centre has a presiding officer. There are also over 260,000 assistant presiding officers and more than 542,000 polling officers.
- Around 30,000 observers and journalists will monitor the election
More than half of the candidates were elected in the previous election boycotted by the BNP in 2014.
The turnout was 40 percent in that election. The Awami League won 234 seats to form the government.
The BNP, which failed to foil the election, launched a months-long campaign on the first anniversary of the polls.
The protests ended after the killings of over 100 people in arson attacks on public transports, especially buses.
The BNP contested the 2018 polls under the Jatiya Oikya Front alliance, but lost and alleged widespread irregularities.
It said elections can never be fair under the Hasina government and so re-launched its movement for the resignation of the government and the installation of a caretaker administration for the 12th parliamentary election.
As it was gearing up for protests, most leaders were arrested after violent clashes with police during its Dhaka rally on Oct 28.
It has enforced a series of transport blockades and hartals since then, fuelling fears of violence.
Both sides have refused calls for a dialogue from a section of the civil society and the international community, including the US, the biggest destination of Bangladesh’s exports, especially readymade garments.
THE GAMBLE
Under pressure from the West to hold a free, fair and competitive election, the ruling Awami League has decided not to bar any of its leaders from running this time.
As it wants to show that participatory polls are possible even without the BNP, heavyweight leaders are fighting the party candidates in many constituencies.
It means the ruling party may lose to its own leaders in many seats, but still, the gamble will pay off as the rebel MPs will be under the party’s control.
However, the rivalry between these independent candidates and the Awami League aspirants has been fierce and deadly at some places, stoking fears of more violence on and after the election day.
The Awami League has also left 266 seats for the Jatiya Party so that there can be an opposition in parliament.
SECURITY
- Around 800,000 members of the law-enforcing agencies are on duty to maintain law and order.
- They have been joined by over 40,000 members of the armed forces, who will aid the civil administration to ensure security.
- The Border Guard Bangladesh has deployed 1,151 platoons.
- The Rapid Action Battalion has fielded 600 teams, and 95 on stand-by.
- Each voting centre has 15-17 security personnel.
- More than 3,000 executive magistrates and over 1,000 judicial magistrates are working to ensure that the rules are properly followed.
- Two-thirds of the Tk 22 billion estimated cost of the election will be spent on security.
- The authorities have imposed restrictions on movement of motorcycles, microbuses, pickup vans and trucks.
CHALLENGES
Since there is little doubt about the results of the election, analyst Abdul Alim believes the peacefulness and fairness of the polls will be under the spotlight.
He thinks the continuation of violent confrontation between the Awami League candidates and party rebels may shatter peace on voting day.
“As the election could not be made participatory because of the BNP’s boycott, we can hope for a peaceful vote. Staging a free, fair and peaceful election has become the challenge now.”
Alim said ensuring a satisfactory turnout may also become challenging amid a spate of violence and boycott.
Rights activist Khushi Kabir agrees that a good turnout can lend credence to the issue of the acceptability.
“I don’t expect to see what I saw in the past elections, but the polls this time should be acceptable. There is no competition at many places. The fairness of the election can be determined in constituencies full of competition,” she said.
Security analyst retired Maj Gen Abdur Rashid thinks the Awami League's strategy to allow rebel candidates will work.
He also thinks there will not be much violence. “There could be some sporadic incidents.”
“And I think participation of voters is important for acceptability. If a satisfactory number of voters turn up, the polls will be acceptable.”
Professor Shantanu Majumder of Dhaka University’s political science department also thinks turnout will decide whether the election will be deemed acceptable or not.
“If a good number of voters cast their ballots, there’ll be no other reason to call the election unacceptable.”