Declining infection rate drives hopes of curbing COVID spread in Bangladesh

Official reports show daily lab-tested COVID-19 infection rate in Bangladesh below 5 percent over the last 13 days.

Obaidur Masum Senior Correspondentbdnews24.com
Published : 31 Jan 2021, 09:56 PM
Updated : 31 Jan 2021, 09:56 PM

The rate remained below four percent over the last six days.

Experts predict Bangladesh will be able to halt the spread of the disease if the transmission continues to fall at such a rate.

But, health specialists warn that it is crucial to strictly follow the measures put in place by authorities to curb spread.

As on Sunday, Bangladesh recorded 535,139 cases of confirmed infections with an official death toll of 8,127.

The Directorate General of Health Services reported that the infection rate dropped to 4.9 percent on Jan 14 for the first time since April last year.

The rate was higher than five percent for several days since then but once again decreased from Jan 19.

The number dropped below four percent and stayed that way from Jan 26 onwards. On Saturday and Sunday, the recorded infection rate was three percent - the lowest since Apr 4, 2020.

File photo

Last year, the infection rate soared beyond five percent from April as Bangladesh registered around 20 percent positive cases from the end of May until mid-August. The rate peaked on Jul 12 when 33.04 percent samples tested positive.

The number of positive cases began declining in September, hovering around 15 percent.

Meerjady Sabrina Flora, an additional director general of health services, said an outbreak can be called “under control” only when the daily infection rate remains below five percent for two weeks in a row in line with the World Health Organization Protocol.

“The situation has been under our control for a long time. But we must not let our guard down if we want this to continue.” She warned that people may tend to ignore the health rules as they feel safer after the roll-out of the mass vaccination programme.

“We can curb the spread even more if we can continue with the contact tracing, isolation and health rules. These are also important beside the vaccine,” Sabrina Flora said.

Mushtuq Husain, who advises the government’s disease control agency IEDCR on COVID-19, said not too much can be read into the declining rate before another week passes.

“Now we need to isolate the patients," he said, "and conduct more tests on suspected cases to curb the spread."

Dr Nazrul Islam, a former vice-chancellor of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University, also emphasised the health rules – wearing masks, maintaining physical distancing and avoiding gathering.

“We can’t go easy on the health rules although the vaccination drive has begun,” he cautioned.

The average daily infection rate in Bangladesh is 14.65 percent, but it began dropping four months ago.

In January, the country tested 424,131 samples and 21,619 came out positive, which means the average infection rate in the month was 5.09 percent.

The rate was 11.36 percent in October 2020, 13.12 percent in November, and 10.68 percent in December.