Bangladesh begins 2018 amid fears of political volatility ahead of general elections

Despite disasters like floods and landslides, Rohingya crisis, enforced disappearances and spiralling rice prices causing unease, Bangladeshis passed the year 2017 peacefully on the whole as the political front was relatively quiet.

The anxiety over return over political instability, which can slow the pace of economy as well, is growing as the calendar turned over to 2018, the year of parliamentary elections in Bangladesh.

The concern was clear in Professor Serajul Islam Choudhury’s voice when bdnews24.com spoke to him.

“We are certainly stepping into uncertainty in the election year of 2018,” he said.

The Dhaka University professor emeritus said he saw no sign of tolerance in the ruling Awami League and the BNP, which sits out of parliament after the boycott of the 2014 polls for the demand for a neutral election-time government.

The BNP is pressing for the same demand again this time.

It says it will not take part in the next election with Sheikh Hasina as prime minister while the Awami League is firm on its position that it will remain in power during the polls in line with the Constitution.   

“Conflict will take place naturally when the two rivals show no sign of tolerance,” Prof Serajul said.

He also fears that such differences of opinion between the two major parties will hinder Bangladesh’s progress on all fronts.

All eyes are on politics while figuring out how the next year will be like, as everything else in a state circles around politics.

Hasina in her New Year message said the outgoing 2017 was a glorious year in the history of the country.

“Let the new year bring in all our lives untainted happiness, peace and prosperity," she added.

BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia, in her message on the occasion, called for unity to ‘restore democracy’ in the new year after passing 2017 in ‘pains of losing loved ones and rights’.

During the New Year four years ago, Bangladesh experienced massive violence centring the 10th parliamentary elections.

The BNP organised similar protests in the following year to topple the Awami League, but failed in its bid to ‘restore democracy’.

The political tensions eased as the BNP withdrew itself from violent protests, but it is clear in its leaders’ remarks about cases against Khaleda and the next election that they will not give away any space.

Like Prof Serajul, economist Wahiduddin Mahmud is also concerned over possible political instability and its effects on the economy.

He said local and foreign investors have their doubts where the country’s politics will stand in 2018.

“I don’t think the situation over the continuous slump in private sector investment will improve,” Wahiduddin said.      

About 2017, he said the economy’s pace and nature remained unchanged throughout.

Despite gains in different indicators, the life of the marginal people became difficult due to rice price hike following the devastation of crops in the floods.

Wahiduddin, chairman of Economic Research Group, advised the government to keep an eye on the food situation in the new year.

He also said the Bangladesh Bank relaxed rules instead of toughening those to control the chaos in the banking sector, which is ‘not a good sign for the future’.

The researcher thinks the government will have to be more active in speeding up the major infrastructure projects ahead of the election.

Besides these issues, Bangladesh is yet to resolve the Rohingya crisis. Around 650,000 Rohingyas fled a military crackdown in Myanmar into Bangladesh in past four months.

Prof Serajul said, “It’s not a bilateral issue. We will have to highlight it more in the international arena in the new year.”

Unlike Prof Serajul and Wahiduddin, former cabinet secretary Ali Imam Majumder does not see any dark clouds gathering in the new year.

“Agitations and instability are only natural in democracy. These can be resolved through talks. I am an optimistic person. I always look at the future with optimism,” he said.

“Why should there be concerns over the differences between the political parties?” he asked and added, “I hope the year will pass well.”